Agree with you. On the point of ('The debt won't need to be restructured because FnF have positive net worth'), also, I would posit that F/F debt won't be restructured because UST has expressly guaranteed they remain current while its commitments are in place.
If and When the UST commitment ends, I find it impossible to even imagine that a penny of F/F unsecured debt would go unpaid. Imagine a US debt rating downgrade; that alone would contribute significantly to a vote for replacing the dollar as world reserve currency. It's a nightmare of unimaginable consequences. I wish I could say it can't happen; but I used to think that about global pandemics. Consider me taken down 1
The alternative would risk the very nightmare scenario that Congress, POTUS, UST, FHFA (et al) ostensibly worked together so hard to avoid: namely, a downgrading of US debt, and -- invariably -- the dollar losing its annual GDP booster-shot from serving as world reserve currency.
In comparison, the Great Crisis would seem like little more than a dropped candle compared to this global nuclear-winter. Perish that t
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