Replies to post #45565 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Myst]

JAIML..'

Your best case example is +30.25% over a 5 year time span?

This is remarkable? Forgive me but if you add in inflation I think you pretty much lost money. I don't mean to sound "salty" but what is the point? Are you AIMing just to prove the viability of AIM over Buy & Hold, or do you actually want to build life changing wealth?

Serious question.

[AIMAGIC]

Hi jaiml,

I replicated your backtest on CARA dated 31 01 14 - 18 10 21.

The AIM return almost exactly mirrors your 15.26% CAGR @ 15.72%.

I used the spreadsheet Myst shared with you in which the STARTING CASH, SAFE, PORTFOLIO CONTROL and MINIMUM TRADE % are all "optimisable" and altered the variables to produce the highest return. The result gives the settings in the first picture below.

The % from 8SMA column on the sheet is helpful to check the optimisation with and shows how the optimisation lines up BUYS and SELLS to moments in which the stock price is furthest away from the 8SMA.

The starting cash indicated by the spreadsheet 18 10 21 was 14.85%. You stated that one idea you are toying with is starting a program (virtually) a few years ago - “10 yrs seems like a sweet spot but it is not set in stone” - and continuing it from there.

Did you start your AIM of CARA with the CASH level indicated or opt to use 50% CASH?

Kind regards,

Alex



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