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jaiml

10/19/21 1:44 PM

#45560 RE: OldAIMGuy #45559

I am actually in the middle of starting a few new AIM programs. One idea I am toying with is starting the program (virtually) a few years ago - 10 yrs seems like a sweet spot but it is not set in stone - and continuing it from here.

For example, I am thinking of starting a new program for CARA (a healthcare stock) that seems to be a decent AIM candidate. IF one had started a $20K 50/10/10 (Cash/SAFE/MTA) program back in 2014, they would initially own 775 shares at $12.91/share and 10K in cash reserves. Today, they would have a total of $59,813 (3,182 shares at 12.72/share and $19,340 in cash). The last two actions were buys: $9,419 in Apr and $6,603 in July for a total of $16,022.

Amazingly the stock is where it initially started (i.e. 0% CAGR for buy and hold) but the portfolio has gone up from $20K to $60K, i.e. 15.26%/yr CAGR. And that is with the stock at 57% below ATHs. At some point, the portfolio was $76K in March this year.

I am hoping CARA will continue this beautiful AIM friendly behavior going forward. So I am thus thinking of starting a new program.

I want to utilize both Ocroft's delayed and Grabber's LD-AIM methods, so I am thinking of starting with $16,022 in stock (1,250 shares at today's prices) which represent the sum total of the 2 recent adds of the original program and keeping the rest of the shares as virtual, as follows:

PC: $44,537
Real Shares: 1,250 shares
Virtual Shares: 3,182 - 1,250 = 1,932 shares
Cash: $19,340
Next Buy: 318 shares at $11.66
Next Sell: 318 shares at $17.50

I would be effectively starting with an initial cash level of 55%. This should be enough to trigger 6 buys. I would sell out all stock after 4 sell signals which I am OK with.

Starting dates are random but going back in time helps provide some perspective, I think/hope.

I keep a weekly screen of AIM candidates that have delivered good returns but recently dropped at least 30% from the last time AIM indicated a sell here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pInLgrkhFIwMJYrOMFal9XK0K5Wv54poaPWftXCgbH8/edit#gid=1814860374




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Toofuzzy

10/21/21 6:08 PM

#45566 RE: OldAIMGuy #45559

Hi Tom

I was responding more to the orriginal question.

Toofuzzy