Replies to post #345232 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Vandalayind]

I never tried to forecast direction.

That is a synonym for guessing.

I just try to not over pay.

You want to swing/day trade. Need the right stock, in the right technical position, with the right catalyst. Trying to beat an index by trading an index is lunacy, and mathematically impossible without absolute perfection. ..which hedged funds don't even have.

There just doesn't happen to be any stock fitting that description. Not my fault.

Trying to beat computer at their own game...fruitless averaged out long enough.

95% of everyone on iHUB is just liquidity getting liquidated. Cold hard fact of the index vs the trader.

[Vandalayind]

Some of the most well known traders and hedged funds have failed at Warren Buffets ETF challenge.

Yet everyone here raking it in.

Just don't add up.

[Vandalayind]

I'm not saying you can't spot a trend and try to trade it.

I'm saying that between the numbers (large orders setting the options range) you need computerized ninja like precision more often than you don't have it...or you'll eventually bleed like almost everyone who tries.

50/50 is break even odds.

To even make money you need to be right 60% of the time.

To beat the index that number is probably like 75%.