SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Vandalayind]

I'm not saying you can't spot a trend and try to trade it.

I'm saying that between the numbers (large orders setting the options range) you need computerized ninja like precision more often than you don't have it...or you'll eventually bleed like almost everyone who tries.

50/50 is break even odds.

To even make money you need to be right 60% of the time.

To beat the index that number is probably like 75%.