Replies to post #374058 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[AVII77]

What other GBM trial in the history of mankind shows approximately 20-25% of patients living 5yrs?

The DCVax trial randomized 331 out of 962 GBM patients they considered.

The majority of those excluded were for the reason of disease progression.

So, you may have 25% of those 331 living five years, but that's a meaningless metric.

But you want a closer comparison?

Rapid Early Tumor Progression is Prognostic in Glioblastoma Patients

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30973372

They looked at survival (and PFS) in patients with and without REP ( Rapid Early Progression).

This was assessed at an earlier time point than the DCVax P3 trial. They assessed it after surgery but before ChemoRad. The DCVax P3 trial not only excluded those patients, it also excluded patients progressing after chemorad. But what did these guys report?

Patients with MGMT promotor methylation had a better OS compared with patients MGMT promotor unmethylated tumors (P =0.042): 21.7 months (95% CI: 15.6-32) versus 16.5 months (95% CI: 11.8-19.9). Kaplan-Meier for OS based on MGMT promotor methylation status and presence of REP are displayed in Figure 2. Survival based on presence of REP and MGMT was 10.2 months (95% CI: 7.1-17.6) in patients with evidence of REP and MGMT promotor unmethylated tumors; 16.5 months (95% CI: 6.4-23.5) in patients with evidence of REP and MGMT promotor methylated tumors; 19.6 months (95% CI: 15-25.1) in patients without evidence of REP and MGMT promotor unmethylated tumors, and 34.7 (95% CI: 17-57.9) months in patients without evidence of REP and MGMT promotor methylated tumors (P = 0.033)

So, in GBM patients who didn’t have Rapid Early progression, for Unmethylated they saw 19.6 months and for Methylated they saw 34.7 months.

The DCVax Blended paper reports: 19.8 months and 34.7 months.

Remarkable, isn't it?

Again, entirely consistent with DCVax doing nothing (that is to say, it doesn't "prove" that dcvax doesn't work, it is "consistent" with the notion that dcvax doesn't work). Somehow though I doubt Liau will look to this study for a historical comparison.

Funny, I ran across this old post of mine from almost 7 years ago. It's relevant to the current discussion. Patient selection can not be ignored.

Finally, Flipper: When is a financing not on the horizon? There are always Cognate and Advent invoices to be paid.