ATL, I totally get what you did. I also agree that the likely outcome (ie greater than 60 percent) with the unblinded data will only reinforce the interim median uplift calculated on the 2018 data. I believe I read (on Twitter) an excerpt from LL’s book that 2 out of 12 of the Phase 1 participants are still alive. This long tail survival is extremely compelling particularly given the low / no adverse events observed during therapy.
However since our SAP is based on median OS uplift I’m keen to figure out the likelihood of non parametric distributed medians of two populations still being the same despite the 30-50 percent uplifts in mOS you found in DCVax versus the controls. I may just try to build a Monte Carlo with some eyeballed distributional segments to see often you would get a null hypothesis with the mOS numbers from 2018 against the controls.
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