Replies to post #85937 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[littlejohn]

PEs, Wade thinks the biscuits look good,

but there may not be any

gravy to pour on them...


He has merit...


But to get the timing right,

you need the newspaper ahead

of time...


So we watch...LJ

[wadegarret]

R59, I always look at forward PEs

The only time I haven't was when I gave you PEs for the major indexes recently, as when I looked them up, the were given on a backwards basis off google searches

As far as DISCA and VIAC, as with 100% of my decisions on stocks, my opinion was based mainly on analyst eps expectations going forward. I use Yahoo & Nasdaq. For VIAC, the stock is selling at about an 11 PE going forward with 5% growth expected, and for DISCA a 14 PE going forward with 13% growth expected. Historically this is not cheap for these particular two stocks in the media sector.

[wadegarret]

R59, forward PEs on the indexes

You are right. Just that when I originally put into google PE ratios S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, they gave only backward PEs, so I assumed they didn't give forward. However I now see if I put in PEs going forward for the major indexes as a heading, I can get them too. My bad. Still though, the forward PEs for the major indexes are on average 30%- 40% higher than historic. I think with the Nasdaq, even higher.

Re, I know few here seem to care what Warren Buffet is doing, but I for one respect him a lot and his opinions on future market events. Fact is, Berkshire Hathaway has about 40% of their total portfolio in cash right now, and the Buffet indicator is at 2 to 1, which in Warrens own words- buying stocks here is akin to "playing with fire". His partner Charlie Munger feels the same way. Lastly great minds like Jeremy Grantham(Harvard grad & runs a $120B fund) says this market is in an "epic bubble", and he doubts it will top out by May at latest. His video interview(which you can google and watch) a month ago about his view of the current market was fantastic to watch.

Bottom line is IMO, along with some great investors and minds out there, this market is ridiculously overpriced and I too believe we are in an epic bubble, which will end painfully for investors as it did in 2000 and 2008. Difference is, I believe the next market downturn will be the worst since 1929.