Wade: yes PE's are high but hardly extreme at around 22 going forward for the S&P500 .... I wouldn't be surprised by a major 10% to 20% correction in the coming 12 months, but I doubt much more than that. The FED has interest rates near zero and there's loads of liquidity to invest in stocks.
Of course if the pandemic doesn't substantially resolve by late summer that would be very problematic for a market that's now pricing in a strong economic recovery by later this year. Also a big corporate tax hike would hurt earnings. We'll see how it plays out.
As of mid February of 50 analysts surveyed their median expectation is for the S&P500 to finish the year at 4100. That represents a gain of just 3% from today's close of 3972, rather flat but not bearish. I don't think analyst opinions have changed much in the past 6 weeks.
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