Replies to post #23514 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Re: Affinivax

In the course of my research I came across another vaccine company that makes this discussion [moot]. Affinivax has a-24 valent PCV that's at least 2 yrs ahead of Vaxcyte. They have a partnership with Astellas and just raised $226M in a round C in January after raising $120M last April...impressive.

I don’t necessarily agree that our discussion of PVCX is moot (and there’s more to come in my next post). The Affinimax program still has to complete multiple phase-2 and phase-3 trials before we can say it’s going to be a serious competitor in the PCV pediatric and/or adult markets. In the meantime, as a PFE investor I’ll be sure to track this program as closely as I can (considering that the Affinivax is private and Astellas plays its cards pretty close to the vest).

All told, the pneumococcal-vaccine market may be the largest sector of the drug/biotech industry that investors hardly ever talk about. I suppose pneumococcal vaccines are not as sexy as gene therapy or immuno-oncology, but that suits me just fine!

[DewDiligence]

(PCVX)—With [PFE’s Prevanr-20] the big advantage is a 1-vaccine schedule vs. 2 vaccines if I'm understanding it correctly.

True, but I should explain what this means for the benefit of those who don’t follow this area closely.

PFE’s existing Prevnar-13 vaccine is a single-shot product, but many patients take both Prenvar-13 and MRK’s Pneumovax (with a suitable waiting period in between) to benefit from Pneumovax’s wider serotype coverage. However, with Prevnar-20’s additional seven serotypes compared to Prevnar-13, there will no longer be an impetus for Prevar-20 patients to take a second vaccine, so the standard-of-care will become a one-shot regimen. (This is less clear for MRK’s V114, which covers only 15 serotypes.)

[PVCX’s] VAX-24 will cover 4 additional serotypes compared to [Prevnar-20]: 2, 9N, 17F, 20.

Some of these serotypes may have relevance to only he pediatric market segment, or to only to the adult market segment. (Note that PFE and MRK are conducting separate phase-3 programs for the two market segments.) Thus, the additional four serotypes of VAX-24 compared to Prevnar-20 may be a misleading stat if VAX-24 has, say (for the sake of discussion), two additional serotypes relevant to the pediatric segment and two relevant to the adult segment.

What I can say for sure is that PVCX will need to run separate phase-3 programs (ideally using Prevnar-20, as the comparator) for the pediatric and adult market segments if they want to maximize VAX-24’s commercial potential. This kind of development and commercialization project is better suited to a large drug/biotech company, so I presume that PCVX will seek a partner if the phase-2 data are satisfactory.