Replies to post #348 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[dewophile]

baraclude sales:
this would seem to bode well for tyzeka. even if their head to head shows comparable efficacy and fails superiority (which frankly is the likely outcome imo), based on more favorable pricing, lack of food interaction, preg cat B safety designation, they should at least meet or perhaps exceed baraclude down the road in market share
I think this also supports the notion that:
1. more hep b patients are seeking treatment as the risk-benefit with more efficacious and tolerable therapies shifts towards treatment versus expectant management (this was already discussed on this board and a nice idix slide confimrs this)
2. some shift in market share away from adefovir and lamivudine (and perhaps peg) due to clear efficacy advantage of the newer antivirals (baraclude and tyzeka)

[DewDiligence]

4Q06 Hepsera sales: $66M, +29% year-over-year and +20% quarter-over-quarter.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070131/20070131006128.html?.v=1

IDIX has gotta be lowballing with the $20M annual guidance for Tyzeka/Sebivo.