Oxford/AstraZeneca (AZN): As the world knows, this adenovirus vector vaccine has been a messy one. I think that both partners need to take responsibility for some real mistakes in the trial execution and further mistakes in their announcements since the data became available. But I haven't seen any sign of that (although I would be even happier than usual to be corrected on that point).
Last night, the UK authorities approved this vaccine for distribution there. Of special interest is the intent to give as many people as possible a first shot, without holding back supplies for the second round. I think that this is simultaneously the correct decision for them to make and also very bad news. It appears that the coronavirus variant first reported there is indeed more contagious: Trevor Bedford is convinced, and we have early data that would seem to only make sense if the R for this form is indeed higher. One mechanism for that may be higher viral load developing in patients more quickly, making them presumably more infectious (via shedding more viral particles). That said, it also appears (so far) that the course of disease with this variant is not actually worse than the other strains, but it's not any better, either. And with higher transmission, that's bad enough. (Note that the WHO believes that the South Africa variant is spreading quickly as well.)
That situation in the UK appears to be one of the biggest factors driving the approval and rollout, and I see their point: this vaccine is indeed better than nothing, one shot for more people is likely to be better than two shots for - some, and it looks like they're going to need all the help they can get. But "better than nothing" is a rough place to be. So, what do we know about the efficacy of a single shot of the Oxford/AZ vaccine, and about the effect of waiting for a second one?
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