Replies to post #235164 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Nice capsule summary on ENTA (eom).

[vinmantoo]

I totally agree ENTA is undervalued.

dewophile,

I totally agree. Thanks for the nice bull vs bear summary. I sold enough of my ENTA a few years ago to get back all of my investment as well as some profit so am now playing with house money but was a bit dismayed at how much ENTA declined and how long it lasted. I keep getting close adding but ENTA never quite pulled the trigger. I just might do it the next week or two. Who knows, they may even announce something related to the isolation of a Covid-19 inhibitor soon.

[Rocky3]

I will take the other side of the undervalued position.

1. HCV cases are on the rise and still have a healthy run rate - but revenue will continue to decrease and will be nowhere enough to cover expenses but agree that current cash will cover deficit for many years
2. RSV vaccines are a very long way out with a poor track record and there are bound to be many cases still even in a post vaccine world. Also testing for viruses (RSV included) is going to ramp up in a post covid world - true but when and what revenue is likely
3. ENTA has as good a chance as anyone in HBV - again true, what is the chance - pretty unlikely - I am not optimistic
4. The follow on NASH drug may have legs - and it may not, which is much more likely
5. You would think a successful antiviral company in the midst of a pandemic might have some added appeal overall (not just interest from pharma but also public funding, etc.) - it does but again what is the likelihood and when and what revenue is likely

IMO, the most convincing argument for undervaluation is how IPOs are being priced, Having lived through the tech IPOs of '99-'01, I doubt that these IPOs will end well either.

[DewDiligence]

Re: ENTA valuation

The company’s current market cap is less than the sum of: 1) cash on hand; and 2) the lump-sum amount that ENTA’s Mavyret royalty stream could garner in a sale to a third party.

In other words, investors are currently ascribing negative value to ENTA’s RSV, HBV, and NASH pipeline!

[DewDiligence]

ENTA—…testing for viruses—(RSV included)—is going to ramp up in a post-COVID world

ERF.PA launches combined RSV/flu/COVID test:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/eurofins-viracor-diagnostics-launches-combined-test-for-covid-19-influenza-and-rsv-as-the-flu-season-approaches-301176184.html

Eurofins Viracor, a leading infectious disease testing laboratory for more than 35 years, announces the launch of several combined tests which detect COVID-19, influenza A/B, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The combined SARS-CoV-2 Plus Flu A/B and RSV tests are intended for the qualitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 and the quantitative detection of Influenza A, Influenza B, and RSV.

[caravon]

IMHO, lately, ENTA was a big disapointment

[DewDiligence]

ENTA’s current EV is only $550M (#msg-159770257).

[DewDiligence]

ENTA hires RSV researcher/clinician as VP, Translation Virology:

https://www.enanta.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2021/Enanta-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-the-Appointment-of-John-P.-DeVincenzo-M.D.-as-Vice-President-of-Translational-Virology/default.aspx

Enanta Pharmaceuticals…today announced the appointment of John P. DeVincenzo, M.D. as Vice President of Translational Virology.

In this role, Dr. DeVincenzo will provide leadership and direction for Enanta’s pipeline of respiratory antiviral clinical development programs and be responsible for the strategic development and tactical implementation of the clinical studies for these programs.

Dr. DeVincenzo brings more than 30 years of clinical research and academic experience to Enanta, predominantly focused on the pathogenesis of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in children and the development of therapeutic and prevention strategies for RSV and other respiratory viral diseases. …Dr. DeVincenzo has a B.S. in Biology from Stanford University and received his M.D. from Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. He completed his residency in Pediatrics at University of California, Los Angeles and a fellowship in Pediatric Infectious Disease at Boston Children’s Hospital. Dr. DeVincenzo is the author of over 250 original published abstracts and papers on the pathogenesis of RSV in children.