Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

I will take the other side of the undervalued position.

1. HCV cases are on the rise and still have a healthy run rate - but revenue will continue to decrease and will be nowhere enough to cover expenses but agree that current cash will cover deficit for many years
2. RSV vaccines are a very long way out with a poor track record and there are bound to be many cases still even in a post vaccine world. Also testing for viruses (RSV included) is going to ramp up in a post covid world - true but when and what revenue is likely
3. ENTA has as good a chance as anyone in HBV - again true, what is the chance - pretty unlikely - I am not optimistic
4. The follow on NASH drug may have legs - and it may not, which is much more likely
5. You would think a successful antiviral company in the midst of a pandemic might have some added appeal overall (not just interest from pharma but also public funding, etc.) - it does but again what is the likelihood and when and what revenue is likely

IMO, the most convincing argument for undervaluation is how IPOs are being priced, Having lived through the tech IPOs of '99-'01, I doubt that these IPOs will end well either.