"MP, I am sure there is no "correct" solution to your problem. It's not math :)"
I think it is pretty well established that the "correct" solution is buy and hold, in an academic sense, and that is more or less math. But that correct solution pretty much includes using broad indices, vti and such, to the exclusion of individuals. According to Bogle, for example, who knows a lot, and if I am remembering the author of the quote correctly, "Buying individual stocks is gambling, not investing -" (or some equivalent). I have found that to be true, especially in view of my problems with sell decisions. Individuals just plain blow up, all too often.
OTOH, I have observed some remarkable people, like Justa and the Dumpling Man back in the day, who seem to call changes in ways that make money in all markets. And Brinker has made a couple fantastic calls in his sense of "market timing" since January 2000.
And then buying and holding indices is pretty boring! When I retire, coming soon enough, I'd like to play and make money too, with some part of my assets, if I can learn enough to have a portion of the success of the remarkable people.
In the end, I interpret your reply to partly be that you don't compute, retrospectively, how various strategies might have worked for you?
Are you trading mostly in those sheltered accounts?
Mucho thanx for the reply,
MP
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