OT
MP, I am sure there is no "correct" solution to your problem. It's not math :)
I don't think SMH or QQQQ or the general US market are going to the moon any time soon, and I prefer to trade them long or short (sometimes, day trade).
With gold and gold miners, I have a core position (about 40-50% of the gold account) which I don't trade. I trade the rest based on sentiment and, to a lesser extent, TA.
If your transaction costs are high relative to the size of your position, you shouldn't trade too often. Obviously, taxes are not an issue for trading in ROTH or in 401/403 accounts.