Replies to post #306469 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[alphapuppy]

I went into the Kaplan Meyer table and there was a lot of change between 40 and 45 months so I averaged the surviving fraction at 40 and 45 months and the surviving fraction was .315 and .274 respectively which when multiplied by the N of the experimental group came out to 68.3 averaged between the 40 and 45 month mark.So since you can’t have a .3 of a person I would say 68 alive at that interval between 40 to 45 months.

For the 60 month time. According to the Kaplan Meyer table there was .201 surviving fraction Which times 232 which was the N of the experimental arm equals 47.8 “people alive”. Therefore rounding that up gives you 48.

So I would say that your numbers are consistent with the Kaplan-Meier curve.

Also It was pointed out to me that In My seeking Alpha blog, I had had some miss spellings that I corrected, and when I edited the blog they pulled it down for review. So I don’t know if it’s going to be put back up. If it comes in with a different different link I will submit the new link.

[alphapuppy]

Also it is important to note that anything past 36 months on the KM curves have very limited data points. Basically only 2 data points given in the Translational Med Article.

Also please note the lower and upper standard error ranges. Sorry for the formatting I couldn't get it to format better.

Total observed Total failed Total censored
232 158 74

Kaplan-Meier table (2):

TIME MONTHS At risk Failed Censored Proportion failed Survival rate Survival distribution function Standard error of the survival function Lower bound (95%) Upper bound (95%)
4 232 2 1 0.009 0.991 0.991 0.006 0.979 1.000
4.4 229 1 0 0.004 0.996 0.987 0.007 0.972 1.000
4.8 228 0 1 0.004 0.996 0.987 0.007 0.972 1.000
5 227 3 0 0.013 0.987 0.974 0.010 0.953 0.995
5.9 224 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.965 0.012 0.942 0.989
6 222 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.957 0.013 0.930 0.983
6.2 220 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.952 0.014 0.925 0.980
6.6 219 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.948 0.015 0.919 0.977
7 218 2 1 0.009 0.991 0.939 0.016 0.908 0.970
7.2 215 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.935 0.016 0.903 0.967
7.5 214 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.926 0.017 0.892 0.960
7.7 212 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.922 0.018 0.887 0.956
8 211 4 0 0.019 0.981 0.904 0.019 0.866 0.942
8.1 207 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.900 0.020 0.861 0.939
8.6 206 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.896 0.020 0.856 0.935
8.7 205 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.891 0.021 0.851 0.931
8.9 204 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.887 0.021 0.846 0.928
9 203 3 1 0.015 0.985 0.874 0.022 0.831 0.917
9.6 199 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.869 0.022 0.826 0.913
9.8 198 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.865 0.023 0.821 0.909
9.9 197 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.861 0.023 0.816 0.905
10 196 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.861 0.023 0.816 0.905
10.1 195 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.856 0.023 0.811 0.902
10.2 194 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.852 0.023 0.806 0.898
10.5 193 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.852 0.023 0.806 0.898
10.8 192 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.847 0.024 0.801 0.894
10.9 191 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.843 0.024 0.796 0.890
11 190 4 1 0.021 0.979 0.825 0.025 0.776 0.874
11.7 185 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.821 0.025 0.771 0.870
11.9 184 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.821 0.025 0.771 0.870
12 183 3 0 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
12.1 180 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13 179 0 2 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13.2 177 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13.4 176 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.803 0.026 0.751 0.854
13.45 175 0 1 0.006 0.994 0.803 0.026 0.751 0.854
13.5 174 2 0 0.011 0.989 0.793 0.027 0.741 0.846
13.8 172 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.789 0.027 0.736 0.842
14 171 3 2 0.018 0.982 0.775 0.028 0.720 0.829
14.1 166 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.770 0.028 0.715 0.825
14.4 165 2 0 0.012 0.988 0.761 0.028 0.705 0.817
15 163 0 2 0.012 0.988 0.761 0.028 0.705 0.817
15.2 161 2 0 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
15.5 159 0 1 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
16 158 0 2 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
16.1 156 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.747 0.029 0.690 0.804
16.2 155 2 1 0.013 0.987 0.737 0.029 0.679 0.795
16.4 152 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.732 0.030 0.674 0.790
16.8 151 3 0 0.020 0.980 0.718 0.030 0.658 0.777
17 148 1 2 0.007 0.993 0.713 0.030 0.653 0.772
17.1 145 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.708 0.031 0.648 0.768
17.4 144 2 0 0.014 0.986 0.698 0.031 0.637 0.759
17.6 142 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.693 0.031 0.632 0.754
17.7 141 1 1 0.007 0.993 0.688 0.031 0.627 0.750
17.9 139 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.683 0.031 0.622 0.745
18 138 2 2 0.014 0.986 0.673 0.032 0.611 0.736
18.6 134 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.668 0.032 0.606 0.731
18.8 133 0 2 0.007 0.993 0.668 0.032 0.606 0.731
18.9 131 1 1 0.008 0.992 0.663 0.032 0.600 0.726
19 129 1 2 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.2 126 0 1 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.4 125 0 1 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.5 124 2 1 0.016 0.984 0.647 0.033 0.584 0.711
19.8 121 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.647 0.033 0.584 0.711
20 120 2 0 0.017 0.983 0.637 0.033 0.572 0.701
20.1 118 1 0 0.008 0.992 0.631 0.033 0.566 0.696
20.3 117 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.626 0.033 0.561 0.691
20.4 116 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.620 0.033 0.555 0.686
20.6 114 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.615 0.034 0.549 0.681
20.7 113 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.610 0.034 0.544 0.676
21 112 0 1 0.009 0.991 0.610 0.034 0.544 0.676
21.2 111 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.604 0.034 0.538 0.670
21.3 109 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.599 0.034 0.532 0.665
21.9 107 0 1 0.009 0.991 0.599 0.034 0.532 0.665
22.2 106 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.593 0.034 0.526 0.660
22.5 104 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.587 0.034 0.520 0.654
22.7 103 0 1 0.010 0.990 0.587 0.034 0.520 0.654
23.1 102 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.581 0.034 0.514 0.649
23.3 101 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.576 0.035 0.508 0.643
23.4 100 1 1 0.010 0.990 0.570 0.035 0.502 0.638
23.6 98 1 1 0.010 0.990 0.564 0.035 0.496 0.632
23.7 96 2 1 0.021 0.979 0.552 0.035 0.484 0.621
24 93 3 0 0.032 0.968 0.535 0.035 0.465 0.604
24.6 90 0 1 0.032 0.968 0.535 0.035 0.465 0.604
24.9 89 1 0 0.011 0.989 0.529 0.036 0.459 0.598
25.1 88 1 0 0.011 0.989 0.523 0.036 0.453 0.592
25.2 87 1 1 0.011 0.989 0.517 0.036 0.447 0.587
25.4 85 2 1 0.024 0.976 0.504 0.036 0.434 0.575
26.1 82 1 0 0.012 0.988 0.498 0.036 0.428 0.569
26.4 81 1 0 0.012 0.988 0.492 0.036 0.421 0.563
26.6 80 1 0 0.013 0.988 0.486 0.036 0.415 0.557
26.7 79 1 1 0.013 0.987 0.480 0.036 0.409 0.551
26.9 77 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.474 0.036 0.402 0.545
27 76 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.467 0.036 0.396 0.538
27.2 75 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.461 0.036 0.390 0.532
27.9 74 1 0 0.014 0.986 0.455 0.036 0.384 0.526
28.1 73 3 0 0.041 0.959 0.436 0.036 0.365 0.508
28.4 70 1 1 0.014 0.986 0.430 0.036 0.358 0.501
28.7 68 0 1 0.014 0.986 0.430 0.036 0.358 0.501
29.9 67 1 0 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
30 66 0 2 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
30.3 64 0 1 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
32 63 1 0 0.016 0.984 0.417 0.037 0.345 0.488
32.7 62 2 0 0.032 0.968 0.403 0.037 0.332 0.475
32.9 60 1 0 0.017 0.983 0.397 0.037 0.325 0.468
33 59 2 0 0.034 0.966 0.383 0.037 0.312 0.455
33.2 57 1 0 0.018 0.982 0.376 0.037 0.305 0.448
33.3 56 1 0 0.018 0.982 0.370 0.036 0.298 0.441
35.1 55 0 1 0.018 0.982 0.370 0.036 0.298 0.441
35.4 54 1 0 0.019 0.981 0.363 0.036 0.291 0.434
35.6 53 2 0 0.038 0.962 0.349 0.036 0.278 0.420
35.9 51 2 0 0.039 0.961 0.335 0.036 0.265 0.406
38 49 1 0 0.020 0.980 0.329 0.036 0.258 0.399
39 48 1 0 0.021 0.979 0.322 0.036 0.251 0.392
40 47 1 0 0.021 0.979 0.315 0.036 0.245 0.385
45 46 6 6 0.130 0.870 0.274 0.035 0.206 0.342
48 34 1 0 0.029 0.971 0.266 0.035 0.198 0.334
50 33 2 1 0.061 0.939 0.250 0.034 0.182 0.317
55 30 2 2 0.067 0.933 0.233 0.034 0.166 0.300
57 26 1 0 0.038 0.962 0.224 0.034 0.158 0.291
60 25 2 2 0.080 0.920 0.206 0.034 0.140 0.272
65 21 2 1 0.095 0.905 0.187 0.033 0.122 0.251
70 18 2 2 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
74 14 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
75 13 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
76 12 1 0 0.083 0.917 0.152 0.033 0.088 0.216
78 11 1 0 0.091 0.909 0.138 0.032 0.075 0.202
80 10 1 0 0.100 0.900 0.124 0.032 0.062 0.187
83 9 1 0 0.111 0.889 0.111 0.031 0.049 0.172
87 8 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.111 0.031 0.049 0.172
88 7 1 0 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
88.2 6 0 1 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
91 5 0 1 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
92 4 2 0 0.500 0.500 0.047 0.028 0.000 0.103
94 2 1 0 0.500 0.500 0.024 0.022 0.000 0.067
96 1 1 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000