Replies to post #389 on Equity Field Notes from temporal sources

[DanWebzster]

OMER is a non-specialized smallcap pharma trying to build a pipeline of first-in-class therapeutics

It markets its lead produc and manages a pipeline of 7 other candidates

Narsoplimab is the lead pipeline candidate. It's a human monoclonal antibody that effects one discrete pathway of the complement immune system while leaving other pathways of innate immunity in tact.

N-mab is an FDA breakthrough therapy with 4 indications in the clinic. On 3/3/20 N-mab had a very encouraging readout in the lead indication and will receive priority review once the BLA is submitted in Q3/20.

Two other indications are in Ph3 and another is in Ph2 testing.

MC = ~800M
On 3/31/20 Cash was 53.9M. Burn rate is in excess of 20M/Q

OMER is likely to raise capital in 2020.

Wait for dilution before considering buying this stock for a run-up into an FDA decision on Narsoplimab.

[DanWebzster]

AVCT is a SPAC that recently acquired an operating company known as Computex.

In 2019 Computex generated Revs of 90M, posting a net loss of 4M

Most Revs came from re-selling hardware, probably explaining why gross margin was ~28%

The founder/CEO of Computex left after the acquisition.

The principals of AVCT were former executives at Masco. Their expertise is growing and running service companies. The future of AVCT/Computex appears to be as a service provider with improved margins.

As computex stands at the time of acquisition, analysis estimates that the Computex business supports a MC of ~58M.

Until new management transforms Computex into a higher margin business, it may be wise to use 58M as a MC benchmark.

[DanWebzster]

VTKLY is a HongKong-based producer of consumer electronics in 3 segments:
1) Electronic Toys
2) Consumer and business phones
3) Baby monitors

Historically 65% of Gross Profit comes from toys.

Next earnings report will be 11/20

The Fisher-Price division exceeded expectations in their recent earnings report. It seems to be the fulcrum of MAT turnaround
ambitions.

Even if the other 2 segments decline by as much as 36% in 2020, VTKLY overall gross profit would decline in the 12-15% range.

If the lock-down baby phenomenon is real, Baby Monitors may outperform in 2021.

Seasonality for this stock is typically good during Q4

If one is looking to diversify away from American equities, this may be a good choice.

[DanWebzster]

BCRX has another 2020 milestone coming up in August:

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=716&mn=12195&pt=msg&mid=20922305


As of this morning, it is my largest position.