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I'm beginning to reduce SCYX.
I will be all out of this position in the next 6 trading days.
Today, I'm long a full position of SCYX again.
SCYX
The day after earnings before a PDUFA date is often a good time to start a position.
This is especially true for therapies that are under priority review.
I've been buying this stock heavily this morning.
XENE is behaving bullishly here toward the end of 2020. An analyst at Bloom Burton has it as his top pick for 2021.
Here's a refresh on the XENE pipeline:
* X1101 is the lead program. It's a more targeted version of the battleground epilepsy therapy, Egozabine. The pace of enrollment in Ph2B is picking up. It's partnered with NBIX
* X901 is a formulation that contains Egozabine intended to treat pediatric epilepsy patients. XENE is currently working on a Ph2 protocol.
* X496 contains active ingredients of Egozabine. This formulation is Ph3-ready. The target market is children with a specific mutation. XENE is working on identifying every child with this mutation.
* X007 is a formula containing Flunarizine, a drug that has been used Ex-USA for decades. XENE has acquired the rights to this drug for the USA. It's being developed for a rare pediatric disease.
SMICY owns the largest semiconductor foundry in China and the 5th largest in the world.
Q3/20 Rev reached a record high, up 15.3% QtoQ.
Recently, the Trump administration blocked American semi-equipment firms from selling product to SMICY. Whether these sanctions will last into a Biden Politburo is unknown. China will become self-reliant one way or another. Afterall, termite kikery is relatively impotent there. The Chinese are nationalists working toward a betterment for Chinese people as a whole.
China has the will and the resources to overcome blacklists, trade wars and embargoes. The West has been FUCKED by insects inside the walls of MSM, universities and institutions. These insidious shits learned their lessons from the Bolshevik revolution and the destruction of the Weimar. America and Great Britain are now on their way toward a neo-feudal dark age for their founding populations.
Use your mid-term trend changing criteria to look for a good entry into SMICY
ASML might also be worth watching, because it's not clear whether they will now have an edge in fulfilling China's need for semi equipment.
PAVM is a medical device marketer with 3 commercially-available products.
* Esocheck is a 5-min non-invasive office-based procedure that is significantly cheaper than upper endoscopy. GERD sufferers are a burgeoning market for this product
* Esoguard is a confirmatory diagnostic for those who are determined to be at risk by Esocheck
* Carpx is minimally invasive device for treating Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.
These are pre-commercial prospects that may occur in 2021:
Esocure is Barrets Syndrome ablation devise that will be submitted for 510(k) approval. Submission is likely to occur in H-1 for prospective approval in H-2.
Port IO is an implantable intraosseus device for direct access to bone marrow. If covidiocy abates, clinical trials may once again progress. Or, maybe covidiocy is just an excuse for PAVM to manage over-extended resources.
PAVM may close on the sale of a disposable application of its Nextflo Gravitational Infusion System. The cash from such a sale is much needed.
PAVM is likely to submit for 510(k) clearance for the broadest applications of the Nextflo system that it can take to market.
This stock has many followers; but, they rarely mention fundamentals. PAVM burned 5.6M in Q2/20 with 14M cash and debt climbing beyond 12M. The share count has quadrupled since the beginning of 2018.
VIRI is a 12/20 IPO developing a Fibromyalgia treatment with an FDA Fasttrack designation.
A Ph2a POC study produced statistically significant data. This is the only program in their pipeline.
VIRI filed to raise 30M by offering 3 Million shares.
They burned $2.5M for the year in 2019.
A Ph2b study is planned to optimize a dose to be used in a Ph3 study for longer-term chronic usage.
The product is a combination of Famciclovir and Celecoxib.
The opty may be in the Billions.
Considering the questionable nature of many low-float stocks, this one seems to be a relatively attractive trading vehicle.
ITCI is the leading marketer and developer of the latest Wonder-Nostrum for Schizophrenia.
Capalypta was approved in late 2019 for Schiz.. in adults.
For 2021, label expansion into Bipolar Depression and late-stage testing for Major Depressive Disorder are on tap. There will also be an H-2 readout for Bipolar Disorder as a monotherapy.
9/20 ITCI had ~$1.0B. This is expected to take them well into 2024.
Here's hoping for a Bipolar Disorder monotherapy trial failure. That would probably be a buying opportunity especially if it occurred before an adjunctive bipolar PDUFA.
TTOO markets a medical device that assesses blood samples for COV-2, Sepsis as well as other infectious agents.
Before the scamdemic, TTOO was a struggling medical device maker hoping to improve the standard of care for emergency sepsis cases. It looked like Jewmerican economics would prevail and that hospitals would continue to use broad spectrum antibiotics to treat emergency sepsis patients and ask important questions later (if ever). Let's not get in to the Sackler Opioid Epidemic. Keen observers of Western Civilization since Tacitus have known that these filth will undermine any good idea to weaken the host population and push the the financialization of every-day life. So, it's not surprising that minimizing antibiotic resistance by implementing rapid sepsis diagnosis was not looking viable.
One of the few positive outcomes of this Covid New World OP is that the TTOO device turned out to be an excellent tool for rapid Covid diagnosis in the hospital setting. After hospitals bought the TTOO device for Covid, rapid Sepsis testing and other follow-on tests became economically viable.
Q3/20 Revs increased 213% YoY. More importantly, management projects that device placements will nearly double from H-1/20 to H-2/20. Positive cash flow is now possible by the end of Q4/20
I believe there will be a run up into late February earnings and I have already begun to accumulate in anticipation of that earnings report.
DAO provides a range of education tools and services to K-12 in China. It has a fremium business model.
9/19 Revs/Q were 48.4M with a loss per share of $0.33
9/20 Revs/Q were 132M with a loss per share of 1.44
Management attributed these accelerated losses to the decision to front load ad spend to take advantage of market research showing Chinese consumer readiness to adapt online learning programs.
DAO may be a seasonal play into the next quarterly report based on the premise that Revs will continue their upward trajectory while ad spend will significantly decline.
BXRX is a specialty pharma spun out of REPH during 11/19
Its lead asset is the recently approved Meloxicam for pain control in acute settings.
One of the reasons this stock has been crushed in 2020 is management's decision to implement a cashless warrant conversion. In essence, BXRX issued 9.8M shares w/o getting a dime for them.
On 8/20 BXRX current assets were ~20M
Meloxicam is already in 50 of the 2000 largest hospitals in the U.S.
If it can get into ~250 hospitals, that would be an indication of the potential for 100M revenue.
I would be interested in buying an offering if conducted before the end of 2020. After tax loss season, I would put it on my list of Low-Floaters if it did a reverse split in 2021.
XENE has a multi-faced pipeline that focuses primarily on Epilepsy and secondarily on Pain.
2021 will likely bring a significant milestone payment from NBIX and an H-1 Ph2B POC readout in Adult Focal Epilepsy.
Q2/20 XENE reported 202.8M in cash and the initiation of a 100M ATM. One criticism of this public company is that has been a wanton capraiser/diluter.
To me this is a biotech with a pipeline that is vulnerable to setback. Epilepsy is a difficult condition to treat. As an example, Potiga, a competing treatment from GSK, has earned a black box warning.
At my level of understanding of this pipeline, I cannot take on the risk of holding this stock overnight. After a successful 2021 Ph2B POC, I may consider daytrading or trading a day-2 continuation.
Gazprom (OGZPY) is in part being driven down by fears that the EU will dismantle NORD STREAM 2 pipeline in response to the recent poisoning of the Russian opposition leader.
But, the largest gas producer in the world is too big to fail.
NORD STREAM 1 connects Russia with Germany via the floor of the Baltic. Unfortunately JewmeriKa is stirring shit in the Ukraine and it would be best for Russia to cut out the need for a middleman. Russia committed to using its own resources to help Gazprom complete Nord 2 in part because the amerikan neobolsheviks began to fuck with western contractors working on the pipeline. On seeking alpha, posters even suggested that the poisoning of the Russian opposition was a deep state trick. I wouldn't be surprised.
Anyway, NORD STREAM 2 or not, OGZPY will eventually thrive again. Here are the reasons why:
1. Despite low NG prices and a decline in 34% decline in revs YOY, Gazprom is still making a margin.
2. OGZPY can dramatically cut capital expenditures now that it has completed the Siberian pipeline to China.
3. American LNG cannot compete with Russian Natty on price. Gazprom will eventually take back most NG business
I think we are near the OGZPY ADR price low.
Also, consider GZPFY yields > 15% and a 50% payout policy is being implemented after 2021.
DRIO has recently switched from B2C to B2B2C in the diabetes management space.
Aiming at the Livongo niche, DRIO was able to do a capraise that will give them a 2-yr runway.
The DRIO diabetes ap gets stellar reviews in both the IOS and the Android stores, much better than DXCM. DRIO's technology is also considered more simple to use than Livongo's
Presently, DRIO has a MCF of ~100M with 38M in cash. If DRIO can generate 20M in Revs that would go along way toward demonstrating a value proposition. Consider that Livongo is valued at ~27X Revs.
Is DRIO to be an also-ran with arguably better technology or will it take market share from DXCM and Livongo. I will be following earnings releases.
FOUR is a payment processor with a 75% concentration in the hospitality industry.
Competitors include SQ, PYPL, Adyen (ADYEY), FISV and a division of USB marketed as Elevon.
FOUR targets businesses that are larger than those who typically use the competitors offerings. Clients include Arby's, WEN, DEN, Outback as well as half the casinos on the Vegas Strip.
The crux of their competitive advantage is their somewhat unique end-to-end solution that allows customers to eliminate other middleware vendors, deployment analytics/business intelligence providers and EMV (europay-mastercard-visa) integrators. Also, FOUR uses their QR code expertise to grow contactless payment revs.
Q3/20 FOUR guided a 10% increase in revs and a 20% increase in adjusted revs. The market response was muted possibly because improved guidance was considered a natural function of restaurant re-opening.
This goes on my permanent watch list.
VYNE is the name of the Dermatology therapeutics concern that formed when MNLO & FOMX combined.
It markets 2 products:
1) Amzeeq has grown scips 20% since the beginning of the April shutdown. It is a treatment for cystic acne.
2) Zilxi, the rosacea treatment has improving health plan coverage.
Potential future catalysts include potential ex-US partnerships and milestones for pipeline asset FCD105 ( a treatment for Acne Vulgaris).
Earnings are 2/5/8/11. I'd be curious to hear the next earnings scheduled 11/4/20.
SELB is a clinical stage biotech now focusing on immunogenicity with 2 product lines:
1) A ph2 Gout drug
2) ImTorr a gene therapy platform intended to induce Dendritic cells to generate T-cells with enhanced selectivity.
ImTorr is expected to reach the clinic EOY/20. The first target for ImTorr will be Pompe. But, AVRO seems to be well ahead of them.
SEL-212's Ph2 disappointed the market with mixed results. Despite questions about statistical sig and without clear POC, management has already decided to push ahead with Ph3.
FY19 70.6M was burned.
This will have to trade well below cash during tax loss season for me to consider it for a trade.
ARTH has FDA and EMA approval for its bedsore treatment, AC5. Should it be worth more than a MC of 21M?
In a profit-driven healthcare system, those who suffer from bedsores might be SOL.
In the usa, Medicare doesn't cover Pressure Ulcers.
Each year 2.5M patients suffer from bedsores and 60K of them die as a result.
Doctors don't debride necrotic tissue as needs be, because they are afraid that inadequate aftercare will allow the patient to bleed out. This is especially true wherever patients are on blood thinners AND profit motivated curry munching filth run the facility. There is investigative journalism that you won't see in the MSM that shows that white elderly patients are especially SOL when the facility is run by those from subcontintental asia, who like to hire low wage animalistic negroes. Always remember a little bit racism will save your ass.
Black Olives Matter.
AC5 is a self assembling peptide that works whether the patient is on blood thinners or not.
Unfortunately, hiring a sales force would be a sure way for ARTH to go BK. So, its trying to use opinion leaders in social media to get the word out that AC5 can save lives.
ARTH burn is $1M-1.5M/Q. It raises cash to keep the dream alive. Maybe one day BAX or JNJ will acquire it and add their mighty wound-care marketing power to the problem.
There is a rumor that BSX is interested.
I would not invest or even trade.
PLX is an Israeli biotech specializing protein design optimization.
With an 18.7M float and 32.4M shares outstanding, its MC = ~$25M.
5/20 its partner Thiesi Global Rare Diseases submitted their Enzyme Replacement Therapy (ERT) to FDA under the Accellerated APproval Program as a treatment for Fabry's Disease.
The problem with present enzyme replacement therapies is short half- life requires treatments at least every 2 weeks. The half life of the PLX enzyme treatment is that its half-life is up to 4X longer.
The competition is significant:
FOLD has an effective treatment that can be used for 40% of Fabry patients.
Genzyme is developing a treatment that may have additive value to PLX's ERT, but will be marketed as a standalone product
IDRSF is recruiting for a Ph3 study with a competing therapy
Most importantly, SGMO, FRLN and AVRO are working on Gene therapies that could render the above approaches obsolete upon approval.
ALXO is a recent IPO that competes with GILD and TRIL in an area of oncology known as CD47 Blockade.
MRK is collaborating with ALXO in head and neck cancer (HNC) using Keytruda in combo studies.
Because the results of their Ph2b study in second-line HNC were quite encouraging, there are high hopes that their next study in first-line patients will progress toward commercialization.
The 2027 TAM for HNCs is expected to be $4.5B.
Gross proceeds from the 7/20 ALXO IPO were ~$172M and their cash runway could take them through 2023.
GDRX is a profitable high-growth IPO that uses its algo to locate medication savings.
Presently, it markets this information 3 ways:
1) Transaction fee paid by Pharmacy Benefit Managers for transacted medication sales
2) GoodRx Club monthly subscription fees
3) Kroger Plan marketed to users of Kroger pharmacies
Revs grew 55.6% for FY/19 and Net Profit has grown 50.8% for H1/20 over H1/19.
A bear case is that the company profits by abating inefficiencies in the American medical system. Another political regime might choose to eliminate these efficiencies by other means.
This stock might face a pullback if Biden-Harris win,I would be a buyer of such a pullback.
CPG is a small cap oil producer that has transformed itself from a growth-at-any-cost strategy to mostly deleveraged and modestly profitable.
To do this, CPG has sold $1B worth of assets and paid down debt.
Further, CPG has lowered production guidance for 2020, cut capex and shut in 25K barrels per day.
CPG management will release those barrels if oil prices stabilize. This could yield an additional $150M EBITDA before decline.
As of 8/20, CPG is breakeven at $30 WTI and has paid down $450 in debt so far this year.
Along with XOM, this will be one of the first oil stocks I consider if bullishness returns to the oil market.
AG was not long ago one the purest of silver plays. Now that the CEO has transformed the company with San Dimas gold credits and small silver mine closures, Sprott invested $150M.
It's almost as if AG has met Sprott's criteria for a business combination.
I'm still not bullish AG, because Mexico is a shitty place to do business and the Sprott cash may go towards buying another miner near the top of a cycle.
SBBP seems like an undervalued biotech.
With 54.3M shares outstanding and a PPS of 2.85, the MC = 145M
Here are their products:
1) Korleva Ph3 read-out was positive. FDA approval could be expected by EOY 2021. Peak Sales are expected in the 300M/yr range.
If SBBP traded at a multiple of these sales, equity would be marked up substantially. What is being missed?
2) Keyveysis is being marketed, but will lose preferential pricing
on 8/7/22. Revs are ~30M/yr at present.
3) Veldoreotide is in Ph2 Acromegaly. If eventually approved, it would be one of six medications on the market for this condition.
SBBP will need to raise capital to take Korleva thru approval. I won't consider trading it until after a Cap Raise.
GNBT
saw the CEO being interviewed He gives me bad juju.
Wondering whether only the GNBT Preferreds get the NAZDAQ spinout. There will be hype if there's another small cap vax rally.
EH is a Chinese drone company innovating Autonomous Aerial Taxis
They have 2 passenger designs and 2 non-passenger designs. Interestingly 2 of their designs are built in Austria coz who wants to fly in a Chinese Aerial Taxi ...
fanTAMasy is 1.4T by 2040. Maybe in WeiMurica Bucks.
Revs have doubled every year from 2017 to 2019. EH is loss-making; but, Revs are growing faster than operating expenses.
Cash = ~46M, while burn is 2-3M/Q
From trading perspective, this looks like an enduring Elder scalper.
NVDA could be one of the best stocks to trade at the culmination of the next major market decline.
It is postulated that NVDA would thrive in a depression much the same way as cinema, alcohol and tobacco stocks performed relatively well during prolonged market downturns of the distant past.
Computer games and even Esports may consume more idle time during a period of widespread under-employment.
NVDA's advantage is that it is an aggressive innovator against latency.
It's recently-released Reflex mode product is the first of its kind reducing latency by 50% by enhancing communication between the GPU and the CPU.
NVDA is also working with producers of peripherals and monitors to drive latency to its lowest reaches. It's not inconceivable that (a) manufacture(s) would endorse NVDA as the preferred choice to enhance their designs.
LLNW competes with legacy leader AKAM and momentum revenue grower FSLY in the digital Content Delivery Network (CDN) industry
Cash starved for years, they recently turned cash flow positive and raised 100M
Here are some reasons to believe they are near a tradeable near-term bottom:
1) Return of sports streaming.
2) Large customers in beta-testing
3) Edge function innovator (So they say)
4) Q4 is historically best Q
5) SNE's digital download initiative for PS5
Next ER is 10/14. I think there will be a tradeable rally between the election and the following earnings release.
CTIC 's Pacritinib program endures as a prospective treatment against Myelofibrosis (MF).
Allogeneic transplantation is the first line treatment against excessive scar tissue in the bone marrow. INCY and CELG have competing second line treatments; but, their drugs are no longer indicated in patients with a platelet count < 50,000/ml.
This category is up to 35% of all MF patients. The FDA has granted CTIC accelerated review if Pacritinib tests well in this subset.
Although Pacritinib's previous Ph3 results prompted a clinical hold due to patient deaths, FDA has sanctioned a redesigned Ph2 study. Results will be read out in early 2022.
CTIC had cash of $70.1M mid-2020 and a burn rate of ~40M/year.
CTIC also has a me-too Covid program.
I might consider buying CTIC on a sharp decline during 2021 for a run-up into Pacritinib Ph2 data.
RKT has a reputation as an innovator in the home mortgage industry.
At a pps of 24.50, RKT trades at a PE of 10 and a forward PE of 16.6. As a benchmark WFC trades at a forward PE of 12.
In the first earnings release as a public company, revs grew 437% YOY withe expenses rising 24$, mostly due to variable compensation.
What makes RKT an interesting speculation to some is that the company might be in a position to have a bigger portion of a smaller pie in a shrinking market.
The CEO has indicated that he could maintain growth while laying off higher paid staff.
This may be a swing trade on an Alexander Elder daily set-up.
GNBT Ii-key vaccine platform focues on viral proteins involved in receptor binding and infection.
A significant problem with most Covid vaccines in development is that they encode a SARS-Cov2 spike protein that prompts generation of antibodies, the majority of which are non-neutralizing.
Non-neutralizing antibodies simply stick to the virus w/o hampering its infectivity. This is because the vaccines are encoded for the whole spike rather than the relative epitopes on the spike involved with receptor bind and infection.
GNBT Ii-key platform's other major advantage is that it can design vaccines that preferentially stimulate Helper T-cells as opposed to regulatory T-cells which suppress immune response.
Also, unlike RNA vaccines, Ii-key vaccines do not require shipping at ultra-low temperature.
GNBT has signed a MOU with Bintai Kinden for exclusive rights to vaccinate against Covid in Malaysia. The deal would:
1) provide a $2.5M advance
2) provide $17.5M on approval
3) pay a royalty of $3-4.5 per dose.
GNBT is also negotiating with a Chinese concern.
GRTS is an Oncology vaccine innovator focusing on difficult-to-treat cancers.
GRTS came to market at a very early stage. The crux of their innovation is to personalize oncology vaccines using each patient's neo-antigen profile.
The market was disappointed at PH1 results ( n=5 )that did not show immediate tumor shrinkage. It does not seem like GRTS was effective at setting expectations for the study.
Subsequently, two of the patients have shown progress. The two cancers that showed a response were:
1) Microsattelite Colorectal Cancer (MCC)
2) Metastacized Lung Cancer in the Liver.
GRTS has decided to conduct a PhII study in MCC
Stock price has not yet responded to the delayed therapeutic interpretation.
MC is ~120M. If the MCC results are repeatable, this stock will be re-rated.
Track for tax loss opty.
Charlie Lau offers the advice that I prefer. Let's see how NIO performs after the the Tesla split.
Just for fun, the glorious Mrs Hitler:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/6rlvsNE3k45O/
KOPN is a microdisplay technology innovator
KOPN's aspirations for financial stability are focuesed on becoming part of the military-industrial complex
They have 2 military programs in production with at least 3 more to follow by the end of 2021.
The two in production: 1) F-35 Fighter Jet 2) FWS-I
The 3 in development include a display intended for use in next generation squad weapons. You know, whatever it takes to fight Israel to power in the Levant.
I suspect KH is a pure warmongering subhuman Cunt on the order of the Kushners, Mccain & HRC. So, I expect a healthy defense budget
whatever may come for Jewmerica.
Anyway, revs were depressed in Q2/20 by a one-time $3.5M license fee payment. Product Rev increased 50% Y/Y.
Margins are relatively stable, but share count is creeping up.
I'd love to see KOPN experience tax loss selling toward EOY.
NIO seeks to be a mobility-lifestyle platform company. They design EVs that give customers access to a network of razorbladesque battery swapping and in-car entertainment privileges.
Since the beginning of the Pandemic, deliveries have rebounded and funding issues seem solved.
Intel Mobileye is paying NIO handsomely for the right to burrow through competitive obstacles to gain access to Chinese autonomous vehicle data collection. You know, kind of like the way Einstein gained access to Physics patents.
So far in 2020, NIO has cut their losses by 64% while building more of their clubby battery switching stations. They presently have 143 battery stations and plan to triple that by the end of 2021.
Some projections have NIO growing revenues 5-fold in the next 4 years, albeit from a small base.
I will likely take a position if there is a major pullback. China won the Great Pandemic War. Jewmerica is fucked.
SGC is a uniform/PPE services provider that also does some manufacturing
During the pandemic they took some market share away from CTAS primarily by being more responsive to PPE needs.
Before the pandemic, they cut their dividend.
The divy that remains is paid 2 - 5 - 8 - 11
8/13 float was 9.3M
AVID offers A/V content creation tools to ad-supported media companies.
AVID turned profitable during the lock-down due mostly to a timely shift to SAAS model.
Q2/20 70% of Rev was recurring in part because production companies have switched to remote workers
Coincidentally (????) DIS & MSFT became clients in Q3/19. So, AVID is now serving some of the most sought after filthy subhumans ( should I say clients) in the Woke Capital Universe.
Margins reached 65.4% in Q2/20.
Now it remains to be seen whether Pandemic effects on the Ad market and live events put a cap on AVID growth.
Reasons for optimism going forward:
1) New product introductions
2) Cost reduction plan implemented during the pandemic Q will peak H2/20 and become 'permanent' in 2021
This could be an earnings play going forward especially if they sign up more woke capital dingleberries hanging from soyboy tampons.
FVAC is a SPAC that has a definitive agreement to merge with the Mountain Pass rare earth mine.
Mountain Pass is one of the 4 existent rare earth mining hubs:
I Bayan Obo of Inner Mongolia known for lighter, low cost rare
earths.
II Easter China ionic clays known for cheap,low grade heavy rare
earths
III Mountain Pass known for high grade ore of a basket of the
historically least valuable rare earths
IV Mt. Weld low production mines containing a basket of the most
valuable rare earths. Refining is done in Malaysia.
Mountain Pass is unique because of the potential to process much of its own ore on site. Separation facilities could be completed by 2022. After that, FVAC plans to manufacture magnets with
the refined ore.
A Chinese company is part of the Mountain Pass consortium that has worked to transform the strategic mining errors of previous mining operations into viability.
For this reason, The Pentagon may be reluctant to give aid to the new public company.
As a complement to this obstacle, no aspect of Mountain Pass plans and operations are secret from Chinese rare earth central planning. China may once again manipulate rare earth prices in order to make it difficult for FVAC to finance the separation and magnet manufacturing phases of its plan to completion.
NERV is worth watching for a potential 2020 tax loss play.
6/30/20 Cash = 35.3M
The value of all 3 of its development programs are fraught with questions:
1. Roluperidone failed Ph3. Another Ph3 at the highest dose tested will be discussed with the FDA.
2. To save further development costs, NERV opted out of its agreement with JnJ on the second pipeline product. If JnJ ever brings it to market, NERV will receive a mid-single digit royalty.
3. Ph2B Proof-of-Concept data is pending for MIN117
If this trades around cash during Q4/20, I would stalk for a small position.
DOCRF has developed an App + medical record system that allows doctors to connect with patients via video.
As of the end of July/20, MC = ~82M
2020 guidance = 22M with ebitda ~4M
Competitors such as TDOC have not yet focused on Canada
What is the TAM of the Canadian market? In a post-nationalist world does it make a difference?
How fortunate for governments that the people they administer do not think
~ Adolf Hitler
XBIT is primarily focused on the development of True Human Antibodies for conditions with high unmet need.
The XBIT program that seems to capture the most interest is an antibody product for managing strokes. This could be a large opty because there is presently no treatment for brain damage caused by reperfusion of stroke patients.
Q2/20, XBIT discovered a new class of antibodys from a human donor. They sold a similar technology to JnJ, but retained the right to develop novel True Human Antibodies unrelated to Dermatological conditions.
True Human Antibodies are antibodies derived from humans who possess rare immunity to specific conditions.
XBIT has 3 Covid-related programs:
* Convalescent plasma collection
* A test that identifies antibodies that are useful in treating
life-threatening cases of Covid
* Development of a True Human Antibody against Covid.
XBIT lead program is in PhII against Staph. Aureus Bacterium
XBIT offers both manufacturing and clinical trial services to other Pharmas. They entered this business as part of the sale of their Derm program to JnJ.
Q1/20 Cash was 241M
CEO/founder owns 17.6% of the company.
BCRX has another 2020 milestone coming up in August:
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=716&mn=12195&pt=msg&mid=20922305
As of this morning, it is my largest position.
VTKLY is a HongKong-based producer of consumer electronics in 3 segments:
1) Electronic Toys
2) Consumer and business phones
3) Baby monitors
Historically 65% of Gross Profit comes from toys.
Next earnings report will be 11/20
The Fisher-Price division exceeded expectations in their recent earnings report. It seems to be the fulcrum of MAT turnaround
ambitions.
Even if the other 2 segments decline by as much as 36% in 2020, VTKLY overall gross profit would decline in the 12-15% range.
If the lock-down baby phenomenon is real, Baby Monitors may outperform in 2021.
Seasonality for this stock is typically good during Q4
If one is looking to diversify away from American equities, this may be a good choice.
AQSZF is a Canadian specialty pharma that in-licenses products too small for larger concerns.
Along the way, a glaucoma drug in-licensed from a British company captured 8% of target market. The British company, Medcom, must be pleased with these results because they have expanded their relationship with AQSZF:
AQSZF will begin marketing Medcom products in the U.S.
AQSZF will begin marketing Medcom's line of Dry Eye treatments, known as Evolve.
As a result, operational breakeven is achievable Q4/20.
The main problem is AQSZF will run out of cash before EOY.
CEO continues to buy shares of his company.
A cap-raise is likely after a PR.
Maybe, AQSZF will be a tax loss buy after dilution.
BCEI is a low-debt, low-cost, oily, DJ Basin hydrocarbon producer
7/20 preannounced volumes above consensus
When CVX took out NBL, BCEI's adjacent acreage was validated
BCEI plans to exit 2020 with zero balance on revolver. IMO, this is a sign of exceptional management
BCEI trades at a Colorado discount to Texas producers, primarily because the electorate of Colorado agitates for anti-fracking initiatives.
ETM is a large old media company attempting to adapt to a post plandemic world, in part by placing greater focus on podcasting.
ETM is now the second largest producer of podcasts.
Before Covid, 2020 was tracking with expectations of a typically prosperous election year.
Since 3/20, sales have dropped 20 - 25 %.
Reasons for optimism for partial recovery:
1) Sales have improved marginally from April lows
2) Sales drop forced cost cutting that will likely carry forward
3) Podcasting revenues grew 44% in Q2
4) Political advertising is very likely to pick up until the
election.
Stock price has dropped 60% since 2/20 and did not recover significantly during the liquidity-fueled market rally. Some recovery seems likely before the election.
OTOH:
1) The risk of a goodwill write-down is present.
2) Plandemic revolver drawdown syndrome. Banks win by old line
enterprise losing
https://videa.hu/videok/zene/mr.bond-whered-you-go-hitler-zene-RvKa7ySEZn1xwJ2x
AVCT is a SPAC that recently acquired an operating company known as Computex.
In 2019 Computex generated Revs of 90M, posting a net loss of 4M
Most Revs came from re-selling hardware, probably explaining why gross margin was ~28%
The founder/CEO of Computex left after the acquisition.
The principals of AVCT were former executives at Masco. Their expertise is growing and running service companies. The future of AVCT/Computex appears to be as a service provider with improved margins.
As computex stands at the time of acquisition, analysis estimates that the Computex business supports a MC of ~58M.
Until new management transforms Computex into a higher margin business, it may be wise to use 58M as a MC benchmark.
OMER is a non-specialized smallcap pharma trying to build a pipeline of first-in-class therapeutics
It markets its lead produc and manages a pipeline of 7 other candidates
Narsoplimab is the lead pipeline candidate. It's a human monoclonal antibody that effects one discrete pathway of the complement immune system while leaving other pathways of innate immunity in tact.
N-mab is an FDA breakthrough therapy with 4 indications in the clinic. On 3/3/20 N-mab had a very encouraging readout in the lead indication and will receive priority review once the BLA is submitted in Q3/20.
Two other indications are in Ph3 and another is in Ph2 testing.
MC = ~800M
On 3/31/20 Cash was 53.9M. Burn rate is in excess of 20M/Q
OMER is likely to raise capital in 2020.
Wait for dilution before considering buying this stock for a run-up into an FDA decision on Narsoplimab.
BCRX has 3 important milestones remaining in 2020:
1) Preliminary Galdesivir Ph I data of wuflu patients in Brazil
2) Additional Ph I dose escalation results in both PNH treatment
naive and PNH patients taking CS inhibitors
3) 12/3 PDUFA
Galdesivir has worked in animal studies against other RNA viruses including Ebola, Marburg, Yellow Fever and Zika
BCX9030 data in PNH (Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria) is due Q3/2020. This indication is a competitive space (ALXN , APLS); but, relative success in PNH could be a gateway to larger complement indications such as C3 glomerulopathy.
BCRX raised 140M 5/20 to bring cash to 225M EOQ1/20.
Cash burn for 2020 is estimated to be 125-150M
Cash runway thru mid 2021.
Assuming Berotralstat approval, at least one more cap raise will be necessary to bring BCRX to break even.
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