From statistics to wishing and hoping.
A statistic of 60% this or that with a large sample is a valid statistic no matter how you want to slice it. It has statistical value. Use it or ignore it. You make that decision, and I don't care what you do with it.
Whether NCLH goes up or down is up to the market and not your personal thoughts or inclination.
THAT IS the reality. And the market will make that decision, not you individually.
Your job as an investor is to get in the mind of the market, and that requires that you often have to leave your personal biases out of the thought process.
According to the average opinion of investment advisors, NCLH is currently undervalued. I'll accept that as being closer to the truth when compared to anything you have to say.
All that said, I don't have a stock position in NCLH, but I've debated with myself whether or not I should. Longer term, it appears to be a great stock to buy as it is greatly under-priced when compared to where it's price will go as soon as the current virus fears start to subside because of available treatments and/or immunizations.