Let me tell you about the one thing which will cause oil to rebound overnite:
Any skirmish with the US Navy in the South China Sea; the gauntlet has been tossed already. Tensions are at an all time high, for we are talking about both the short term and long term face of the CCP.
Expect Xi Jinping to be gone within 6 months after the President is re-elected. If not, then China is definitely on a war footing. They have to prove to themselves and their people that they are not the losers they are.
So I expect a lot of tumult in the oil markets in the next year, most of it causing movements to the upside.
If demand decreases like Shell exec states and recovery is slow, then you play with the supply side. Have seen it work before. A few more assaults on Iran's nuclear industry may create accidents, like blowing up oil wells and the straits of Hormuz, by one party or another.
Just my thoughts, though, perhaps too optimistic.
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