[I-Man]

A good company indeed like others (XOM, CVX, etc). But I do not hold any at these higher prices.

RDS is an ADR I believe and I do not buy any ADR's any longer due to the fees involved. NO OTC's either...

[conix]

Been a n ice ride with RDS.b, WATTS Watt.

I just go into CLF at 16.45

[conix]

Buying when no one wanted energy stocks two years ago was one of the best moves. Sure, I did not like the dividend cut, but they have the free cash flow from these energy prices to raise the dividend every quarter--and they are saying it will be about a 4% dividend increase each quarter. That is a compounded rate of 20% increase annually.

[conix]

With the market swoon recently, stocks with dividends with the prospect of dividend increases will be a great refuge.

[conix]

RDS.b is going to raise its dividend by 4% per quarter

[conix]

Chart

[I-Man]

Now Biden's Secty of Labor come out saying "US economy Fragile"... Faucci yesterday stated a "constellation of new Covid mutations will happen"...

I tried to post construction data on AOL (been a 25 year member), but even AOL has me censored no matter what I try to do as others as well..


Scary times coming I feel...

[Watts Watt]

Don't think we have to wait until the end of the year...I would say October at the latest.

[I-Man]

CLF I owned at $9.00 sold long ago. US economy going into tank by EOY under Biden Admin...

WHy such losses here for Royal Dutch??? I see they cut dividend in past too.

[Stakeholder detector]

Thanks for all the info.

[BottomBounce]

Royal Dutch Shell $RDS.A $RDS.B and Rolls-Royce $RYCEY unveil plans to deepen their existing partnership on sustainable aviation fuels as part of their effort to achieve #netzero carbon emissions. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3711412-shell-rolls-royce-extend-sustainable-jet-fuel-partnership

[Watts Watt]

Thanks!

As a connoiseur of oil stocks, why is it you have not invested in CEQP and SUN? Highly recommend them for dividend income and capital growth.

Both have had tremendous yields (were 12% plus) and now have had tremendous PPS growth.

Also, please look at CLF.

It is groomed for a terrific ride up this year!

[conix]

Chart of RDS.b--Back a few years included

[Watts Watt]

Have heard that story many times before. Thanks.

[conix]

LOL. It is not about where a stock is 5 days after your purchase. IT is what it may be six months to one year from now. I avoided a $4 drop by selling and bought in--albeit I could buy more at better prices just a few days later.

GLTU

[Watts Watt]

From your own posts, it looks like anyone who jumped in on the 26th is SORELY HURTING TODAY.

Good luck to you. Better luck next time.

Nothing stopping this descent.

[conix]

Filled the gap. Back in for another ride, Watts Watt.

Would not be surprised to see another dividend increase in a few months.

[conix]

Rebuying at $36.50 or so-- that will fill the gap on the chart.

Full disclosure--sold out above $41 when the RSI was high.

GLTU

[conix]

Chart is looking good for a breakout with some more help from the oil markets

[conix]

BINGO. LOL

I do not expect RDS.b to go lower than that.

[Watts Watt]

What is your buy back target? USD 28-29?

[conix]

$40 by June is my forecast.

And plenty of times to trade during that time. I sold 50% on that nice run from the low $2o's. Waiting to buy back in.

[Watts Watt]

Great time for you to average down today. Ho Hum.

[Watts Watt]

With the chunky decline today, you may wish to re-consider your forecast.

[conix]

RDS.b is up over 50% in just a few weeks. And Shell will continue to be a capital appreciation play vs. the dividend play it was before.

[conix]

Sure glad I averaged down big time earlier.

Shell upped at Bernstein on 'attractive' cash flow momentum

Dec. 03, 2020 2:42 PM ETRoyal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A)By: Carl Surran


Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.9%) rises modestly as Bernstein Research upgrades shares to Outperform from Market Perform with a $54 price target, citing "attractive cash flow momentum."

"With our fear of a dividend cut behind us and the surprise Q3 dividend boost still resonating, we've re-examined the Shell cash flow story and think it's now too good to ignore," according to Bernstein analysts led by Oswald Clint.

Free cash flow should average $21B in the first half of this decade and $26B in the back half, the Bernstein analysts believe.

"While income investors may not return, their holdings are around 4% now (from 9% in Q1) and with the stock trading at a rare sub-1.0x [price to book] and valued at just the current dividend stream, we think ESG and cash flow growth seeking investors will pick up the baton," the firm says.

[conix]

Chart is becoming very constructive.

[conix]

I am happy with my averaging down strategy so far. Bet we are over $40 in the next six months.

[Watts Watt]

Very interesting, and thanks.

I shifted my investment from RDS to CEQP Crestwood and SUN Sunoco, because they have great yields and are less impacted than the majors when energy takes a hit.

You might look into them.

[conix]

RDS.b just raised their dividend. Not much--4%. But it does show concern for shareholders and confidence in future cash flows.

[conix]

Chart on watch for a sustainable turnaround.

[conix]

Why The Stock Of Royal Dutch Shell Has Collapsed Near Its 25-Year Lows

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377357-why-stock-of-royal-dutch-shell-collapsed-near-25-year-lows

[conix]

I expect a dividend INCREASE by end of 2022 as oil prices rebound.

[Watts Watt]

So you think they will continue paying a dividend...I doubt it.

[conix]

Wow-- so you thinks a dividend is worthless?

Thanks for the heads up on your economic knowledge.

Cash is cash--and a dividend is always a part of a Total Return analysis.

[conix]

I did a small averaging down today. My breakeven (without factoring in the dividends) is anything over $33.

[Watts Watt]

Good luck holding your position and a worthless dividend. LOL

[conix]

Oil analysts forecast a WTI price of $65/barrel by 2024. Hopefully RDS.B has not abandoned oil exploration and production by then.

LOL

[Watts Watt]

Might be well worth looking into, now. I zeroed my position quite a while back. Tks for the update.

[conix]

Shell becoming a bit of the falling knife.

With all the uncertainty with the company cutting costs, pivoting to more green, and the dividend policy, it is no wonder that the stock is weak.

[Watts Watt]

I only show capital gains here.

Must be doing something right.

[Almosthere]

Yes way too optimistic. The glut it here too stay for at least 17 years.

OPEC is about too unleash cheap oil again on the market. This is going to devastate big oil in the midst of this on going pandemic.

US COVID-19 cases are spreading rapidly, and Europe won’t even let US into EU countries.

Oil has not hit its low Yet. It’s coming!!!

Think your safe in oil, think again!

[Watts Watt]

Just in time to shut up the global warming environmentalists.

[Watts Watt]

Let me tell you about the one thing which will cause oil to rebound overnite:

Any skirmish with the US Navy in the South China Sea; the gauntlet has been tossed already. Tensions are at an all time high, for we are talking about both the short term and long term face of the CCP.

Expect Xi Jinping to be gone within 6 months after the President is re-elected. If not, then China is definitely on a war footing. They have to prove to themselves and their people that they are not the losers they are.

So I expect a lot of tumult in the oil markets in the next year, most of it causing movements to the upside.

If demand decreases like Shell exec states and recovery is slow, then you play with the supply side. Have seen it work before. A few more assaults on Iran's nuclear industry may create accidents, like blowing up oil wells and the straits of Hormuz, by one party or another.

Just my thoughts, though, perhaps too optimistic.

[conix]

Oil and gas demand likely weakened 'for years,' Shell CEO says

Jul. 16, 2020 5:59 PM ET|About: Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The global economy will not achieve a V-shaped recovery after the coronavirus epidemic, which will hurt oil and gas demand for years, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) CEO Ben van Beurden says.

"Energy demand, and certainty mobility demand, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It is probably too early to say, but it will have a permanent knock for years," the CEO told IHS Markit today in an interview.

The weaker demand outlook and subsequent drop in gas prices mean Shell and others have needed to sharply cut spending sharply and postpone large amounts of investment "for some time to come."

Shell will publish the exact size of its Q2 writedown - flagged last month at as much as $22B - at the end of July, but it will not affect "operational coverage and the coverage of dividends," van Beurden said.

[Watts Watt]

Roger that.

[conix]

Chart....with a modest dividend, Shell will be able to reduce debt as oil prices rebound. It may take 12-24 months, but it is not ridiculous to expect a price of $45. A 25% plus annual total return is not bad.

[Watts Watt]

Always appreciate your insights which are backed with solid linked information. Thanks.

[conix]

RDS.b is now a capital appreciation play.you buy here and see $40 in one year. Nice 25% total return

[conix]

Royal Dutch Shell cuts costs by US$9bn to protect finances from coronavirus but dividend safe

“The combination of steeply falling oil demand and rapidly increasing supply may be unique, but Shell has weathered market volatility many times in the past"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc - Royal Dutch Shell to cut costs by up to US$9bn to protect finances from coronavirus

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) saw its shares rise on Monday as the oil giant said that it is taking action to “reinforce financial strength and resilience” and to position the company for economic recovery following the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, but there are no plans to cut its dividend.

Shell said it is scrapping its share buyback programme and removing some US$5bn from its capital spending budget, which will now stand at US$2bn for 2020, and it plans to slash underlying operating costs by US$3bn to US$5bn over the course of the year.
READ: Shell deemed “most vulnerable” by City analyst

It is expected these changes will contribute around US$8bn to US$9bn of free cash flow over the current twelve-month period, with the company saying that it also remains committed to its planned US$10bn asset divestment programme.

“As well as protecting our staff and customers in this difficult time, we are also taking immediate steps to ensure the financial strength and resilience of our business,” Ben van Beurden, Shell chief executive said in the statement to investors.

“The combination of steeply falling oil demand and rapidly increasing supply may be unique, but Shell has weathered market volatility many times in the past.”

Shell said it will seek to maintain strong financial credit metrics and ensure its balance sheet remains robust. The company added that it has around US$20bn of cash and equivalents plus US$10bn of undrawn credit lines.
Very proud dividend record

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, commented: “Major oil producer Royal Dutch Shell has a very proud dividend record where it hasn’t cut its payout since the Second World War. Perhaps this explains why, unlike many other companies, it is not yet cutting its dividend let alone suspending it despite the escalating impact of the coronavirus outbreak and the containment measures launched in its wake.

“With a yield well into double digits the market is clearly pricing in action on the dividend sooner rather than later. Perhaps there might even be a bit of relief if such a decision were to be made."

He added: “For now the company appears to be attempting to stave off this difficult call by curbing its share buyback programme while cutting costs and expenditure.

“There may be question marks over its capacity to make the business leaner than it is already given that significant cost savings were made in the wake of the 2014 to 2016 oil price crash.

“And while the company is apparently committed to its $10bn asset disposal programme, it remains to be seen if it could find any parties who would be genuinely committed to buying assets in the current environment."

Mould concluded: “Shell has been through testing periods before, not least a big reserves scandal in the mid-noughties, but it’s hard to think of a CEO at the company who has been dealt a more testing hand than current incumbent Ben van Beurden.

“If its short-term challenges weren’t enough, there is the ongoing challenge associated with addressing mounting concern over its contribution to climate change.”

In late morning trading, Shell's A shares were 1.8% higher at 1,080.80p.

-- Adds analyst comment, share price --
Quick facts: Royal Dutch Shell Plc

Price: 1078.6 GBX
LSE:RDSB
Market: LSE
Market Cap: £84.39 billion
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