Replies to post #160213 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wahz]

I think Fisher is right.

While the Jan poll showed the vast majority to be waaaaay off on this thread,(it would have to be almost impoossible to gather togather a group of folks whose average prediction for the market was 1000 on the comp and then have it be at almost 2000 9 months later. Could any group of investors, ANY be off nearly 100% on their prediction for a one year time frame???You have to admit, it doesn't get any worse than that.This is not the smart money here. Clearly.)

As this bull wears on, the folks on this thread are becoming more bullish. In another two years, they may be wildly bullish. If they get wildly bullish, that will probably be the top. So, the thread is a contrary indicator at extremes only, and to use that info, you have to broaden your time frame to a year, instead of using hourly charts, like those here and elsewhere.In between extremes, the thread will be trend following and will be quite accurate. It is up to us who want to WIN, and not just play, to figure out when trend following works.

This is what Fisher is saying and we see it here.

[spectr]

The NASD warned on Friday
that the tech dips were being bought on credit with margin
money and that margin credit was reaching dangerous levels.
According to the NASD there was $26 billion in margin debt
on Nasdaq stocks in July which is the most current month
reported. To put this in perspective there was only $21
billion in Nasdaq margin debt in March 2000 at the top of
the market. Stocks bought on margin are considered held
by weak hands as a sudden drop in the market can cause a
wave of forced liquidation that further accelerates the
drop. With Yahoo's market cap equal to General Motors there
is concern that bubble mania has returned. Volume in low
priced stocks has surged to more than the NYSE or Nasdaq.
Volume in bulletin board stocks surged to 41 billion last
month compared to 117 billion for all of 2000. This
represents extreme speculation and an increase in market
risk.