IMO, there is only short term opp to trade the o&g stocks based upon the upside opp in oil prices but half the expected move (my guess of SA not wanting prices high enough to trigger shale production growth) of that is already realized. Gas is in a space that hasn't seen much demand drop and will continue to displace coal. If you look at the end user energy arbitrage, long term ( >5 yrs) oil prices will be once again be 10X NG prices so oil producers will have to cut costs, probably using renewables. Even that has a limit as refining is the biggest energy user. I am guesstimating that $2-4/barrel upstream can be had by energy efficiencies depending on the type of operation being run. For as long as renewables costs decline, the uncertainties are much higher on the o&g side relative to electric utility side. >10 yrs, oil will be like coal of the past decade.
Meanwhile, latest ME solar PV cost are 1.7 cents/kwh so those countries don't have to increase production to increase exports of oil and ME NG is plentiful by an order of magnitude. Stone age didn't end for the lack of stones.
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