Replies to post #231090 on Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

With reports of 60% of sailors who are infected being asymptomatic and mass testing in CA revealing 50X-80X more cases than reported...we don't know the true sale of what we're dealing with.

Such reports need to be written as "With reports of 60% of sailors who are infected are asymptomatic SO FAR". Any declaration of really being asymptomatic should wait until they no longer have virus, or are shedding virus for long periods, say one month or more without illness.

[biocqr]

COVID-19 testing models estimate 5 to 35 million tests per day needed vs. 160K currently to end the pandemic...

The case for ending the Covid-19 pandemic with mass testing

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening

To end the pandemic, the US instead needs to actively seek out potential spreaders, particularly the asymptomatic spreaders. And that requires tests. A lot of them.

The Safra Center put out a series of white papers on the various components of ending the pandemic. The paper looking at testing for Covid-19 suggests that between 5 million and 20 million tests per day will be necessary, between 2 percent and 8 percent of the US population, coupled with contact tracing to target the tests. (The Safra Center is planning to publish a more in-depth report on the recovery process this week.)

Paul Romer, a professor of economics at New York University, wants even more: 20 million to 25 million tests per day, plus more frequent testing for front-line workers exposed to the virus.

He has run his own simulations of the impact of testing on the spread of Covid-19, finding that an ongoing testing regimen reduces the number of people that need to be isolated, allowing the remainder to return to work. That’s true even if the test isn’t perfect at identifying spreaders. Part of the appeal of an aggressive test-and-isolate approach is that it leaves less of the burden of fighting the disease to individuals, unlike other tactics like reporting contacts, wearing masks, and maintaining social distance.

But it does require testing repeatedly, on the order of the entire US population every two weeks.

“Health care professionals, police officers, EMTs — you may need to actually test them every single day to catch an infection early enough to make sure they are not spreading it to their colleagues,” Romer said. “What I would say right now is a good target would be 35 million per day. You can test everybody every two weeks, and then you’ve got 10 million front-line occupations that you can test every single day.”

Such a level of testing would effectively bring the R0 below 1, according to Romer. And that will ultimately cause the pandemic to fade out.

Getting to 35 million tests per day would cost around $100 billion, according to Romer. It’s a steep price tag, but a fraction of the $350 billion or so in monthly economic losses due to the ongoing lockdowns and social distancing measures in the United States.

In fact, Romer envisions a federal agency with a $100 billion annual budget whose job it is to fight Covid-19 and prepare for future pandemics. The goal is to be ready to squelch an outbreak without shutting down the economy again.