Replies to post #37694 on Zion Oil & Gas Inc (ZNOG)

[jdwintx]

Using your numbers I see your process, but disagree with the calculations as you present them. That however, is of little importance as each investor must use the best calculations available to them and their perception and understanding of each. In other words, it's OK if we disagree. What is important is the fact the oil and gas exists. Next of course comes the access to it, extraction, production and finally the transportation field to plant and plant to market delivery. The one area of agreement we hold is the fact the Blue & White Party is the least favorable for us. But that's an entirely different and a completely political discussion. Finally I LOVE research, and did it for many years working directly in that role with Bob Crandall, CEO of the Old AMR Corporation (old American Airlines). Unfortunately, I must admit my time researching ZN must be limited to perhaps 5% of my available time with Investments for at least a few weeks if not months. Two factors there, neither of which indicate disinterest in ZN. Instead due to both my minimal position in ZN and the low value involved. Simply, more time and attention will be necessary with other higher value stocks and positions requiring time and focus in what I'm sure you will agree is a rather difficult period. All that said, when things return to a semi-norm, I truly look forward to some lively debate. Actually love doing it and when done with Mutual Respect, a willingness to listen, etc... It can actually be helpful to everyone!! GLTY

[DragonBear]

I'm glad you like research

Excellent post BM.

As you point out Oil Shale is not the same as Shale Oil. Interesting how they are easily confused.

Unclear if estimates or 3rd parties, in the past, used Oil Shale in their calculations of Israeli oil reserves.

Oil Shale contains the extremely light Kerogen. ZN drilling in an area of Israeli Oil Shale finds a light API grade of oil in the mud of MJ1. Coincidence?

Also it's said the US has oil reserves in excess of the Saudis. As in Oil Shale located in the Fed lands of the US Rockies. Thus, past political slogans the US just needs to open up Fed lands, and instant oil independence. One of the major oil companies has been piddling around trying to extract Kerogen from US Oil Shale. One method had them cooking it in place so as to convert it to oil. Extremely expensive, and requiring WTI to be at least $100/bbl, and preferably $120/bbl in order to have a profit. Meanwhile Shale Oil producers are going broke with break even back in the mid 40s. An improvement over just a few years ago in the mid 50s.

As you point out elsewhere, despite all the drilling in Israel, no one has found Israel to be floating on a sea of oil, in the past 50 yrs. Which means ZN can drill away in MJ land. And after a few more dry holes, can easily obtain another lease, at another location, on the cheap. With little to no opposing bids.