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TastyTheElf

03/30/20 8:26 PM

#258210 RE: Insync_2000 #258200

The reason you don't sell right now at $4.50 is because the option value on this company is still a lot higher than that.

I don't know what the chance on appeal is, but let's say it's 25%. 25% of $20 (minimum) is $5.

(The judge's whole argument rests on three small Japanese trials, from which she cherry-picks the three relevant effects -- lower trigs, no LDL-C increase, no Apo-B increase. There were other trials that did not corroborate the last two effects. Will this hold up on appeal? I have no idea.)

The chance of broad approval in Europe is 90% and that 11-year exclusivity has to be worth at least $10 -- maybe $15.

So this is a reasonable option at $4.50 per share.
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dmiller

03/30/20 8:29 PM

#258214 RE: Insync_2000 #258200

It's going to be dead money for a while and opportunity cost is real especially in this mkt. Why sit with stagnant money?