Replies to post #21328 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[wow_happens28]

To some of most brilliant people I have seen on investing, not just at iHub, to you all.... why will all these travel restrictions and business closures, people staying at home, etc.. why will all these measures not cause another "Great Depression" and quickly?

Simple example, look at all the thousands of hourly sports' stadium employees losing NEEDED pay, part time and full timers .Then you got stadium food and beverage suppliers cutting hours and laying people off as well. Most those affected really need money the money they make just to by check to check. Then the "Ripple Affect". The laid off people don't shop as much, do not make major expenditures like new cars, appliances and lesser expenditures like clothes, eating out, go to casino's, etc. Then more people get their hours cut of laid off at the downstream ripple affect businesses and on and on.

How do we avoid a major quick hitting world wide depression if all these closures and travel bans stay in place much longer? I don't think we can handle even 4 more weeks of this.

Thoughts and comments please!!!

[mr_o]

Re: Bullish on oil

I too am taking a long term bullish position on oil. The oil markets had two black swan events and justifiably tanked. The next move could be another leg down to $20 / barrel, not predicting anything short term.

Mid-long term I am happy to go on record saying oil will return to $45-60 / barrel. And as such, I think it is an opportunity to buy quality oil companies that 1) maintain sustaining capex + dividend at these prices and 2) have decently strong balance sheets 3) have low decline profiles. J

ust as seemingly random events created this crash, seemingly random events will create an upside narrative. Opec+ truce, Middle East unrest, COVID-19 demand rebound, who knows but it will happen in time.