Replies to post #228597 on Biotech Values

[Bickema]

RVNC - Thanks Dew, these extrapolations are extremely beneficial to RVNC investors.

Any comments questions or concerns regarding the results?

Everything looks great. 8% YoY is great!

Do you have any idea what percentage of the total toxin market botox captures both in US and ROW?

[DewDiligence]

(RVNC)—Allergan’s CoolSculpting franchise has become a commercial bust. 4Q19 worldwide sales of CoolSculpting consumables were $53.0M, -32% YoY, while 4Q19 worldwide sales of CoolSculpting systems/upgrades were $25.7M. -47% YoY (https://allergan.gcs-web.com/node/22536/pdf ).

Mark Foley* struck a helluva deal when he sold ZLTQ to AGN for $2.5B three years ago (#msg-128649430).

*Now CEO of RVNC.

[DewDiligence]

1Q20 worldwide Botox sales=$812.2M, -6% YoY, -20% QoQ*:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1578845/000156459020022386/agn-10q_20200331.htm

• US therapeutic: $395.8M (-1% YoY, -15% QoQ*)
• US cosmetic: $212.7M (-7% YoY, -22% QoQ*)
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US total: $608.5M (65% therapeutic; 35% cosmetic) was 75% of worldwide total


• Ex-US therapeutic: $89.3M (-1% YoY, -13% QoQ*)
• Ex-US cosmetic: $114.4M (-21% YoY, -37% QoQ*)
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Ex-US total: $203.7M (44% therapeutic; 56% cosmetic) was 25% of worldwide total


Some of the softness in the 1Q20 numbers—especially in the aesthetic segment—goes beyond what can be attributed solely to COVID-19 and normal seasonality. My thesis is that some of AGN’s best Botox sales reps opted to depart rather than stay on with ABBV.

*Botox sales are seasonally stronger in the second and fourth calendar quarters than in the first and third quarters.