Replies to post #232851 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[smarterer]

I do not think anyone, not the buyers or their super smart investment bankers can come up with a value for Amarin, there are way to many unknowns, Amarin needs to GIA for at least two years so these experts have meaningful numbers to work with

Amarin may GIA for a couple of years, or even build itself into a BP from its current small size (relative to BP), but if BP sees a potential fit, they aren't waiting two years to see the data to more accurately tune their value estimations. By then everyone will know AMRN's worth; the advantage in buying another company is understanding its value better and sooner than your competitors.

There's currently plenty of info to work with. There are two major hold ups to an offer at present, IMO: the patent issue, and the label. Both will get resolved in a month or two at most, and could get answered within a week or less. Once resolved, the race among BP is on to see who find's Amarin to be the most compelling fit, and is willing to pay to make that happen. If no-one sees sufficient value, JT seems prepared to GIA.

[HDGabor]

s-

I do not think anyone, not the buyers or their super smart investment bankers can come up with a value for Amarin, there are way to many unknowns, Amarin needs to GIA for at least two years so these experts have meaningful numbers to work with, that is exactly why I feel the current share price is of greater importance in Amarin's case

Unknows will exist always and the next years won't deliver "any" relevant thing for the valuation (at least nothing that compensate the lost years if they would wait).. A potential buyer has enough data / info to make a valuation (e.g. "all" data about the market country by country, first hand knowledge, etc.). To prepare a most realistic valuation the "rank" is:
- multi / BP (with long, international operation)
- Amarin
- analyst
- rest of the world (inc. us)
(The rank reflects who has the most precise and biggest "database" [and resources] to make a valuation.)

If "anybody" would like to make an offer, nothing will "block" it after label extension and end of the patent case.
I see these two as a barrier currently, since the answers / solutions are too close to guess / value the different outcome.

If no offer within 1-3 months after these (or before end of 2020) most likely Amarin will be GIA forever. (To avoid any doubt: if they will grow, become a BP over time they could be BO'd, this "statement" is about Vascepa, as Amarin = Vascepa currently).

Amarin valuation is one of (if not) the easiest valuation (among developing companies) since Co aren't "available" at this stage (mostly de-risked) usually.

Best,
G