Replies to post #231014 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[shadolane]

Generally for products which are developed around a process or formula companies do not always pursue patents. They just keep the process or formula a secret.

In the case of Coca Cola their original formula was patented in 1893. When it changed a patent was not pursued.

For products where performance characteristics can be discovered through measurement or observation patents offer finite though defeatable protection.And of course some competitors just clone products and don't care about ip.

Companies rely on evolutionary patents to try to retain some level of ip.

[north40000]

Coca Cola may have had some patents, but the formula for the liquid in that bottle or can remains a trade secret never reverse engineered. Trade secrets are a form of IP.

[rafunrafun]

JL - I understand your point of view: Amarin could become Coca Cola / Amazon.

But there is another side to it; for every one Coca Cola / Amazon, there are thousands of companies (with great ideas / products) that we don't hear about because they have failed.

Amarin checks all the boxes to become Amazon-like - great product, great management, great demand & world changing.

But like anything, this comes with risks: collapse of the world economy, competition, internal/external wrongdoing, etc.

To me, this boils down to risk/reward. Do I want a 100% certainty of getting $2 million or a 75% likelihood of getting $5 million, with a 25% risk of a collapse. Personally, $2 million would be such a life changing moment for me, I could forego the chance (even if with high likelihood) to see $5 million.

But I could totally see the opposing viewpoint. This is equivalent to folding in poker, if the pot odds are in your favor of calling, but you would risk losing too much of your money.

Bottomline: Pot odds say 'call' (GIA) but each player's personal situation may call for a BO.

[biotechtrader2020]

I agree with you on the CocaCola analogy from a market opportunity standpoint - i.e., the total addressable market is big.

However, that is where the analogy ends. Comparing CocaCola patents/trade secrets with drug companies is like comparing apples and oranges. Here, upon patent expiration, FDA has laid out guidelines for the generic companies to show bio equivalence and the competition will come in swift.

Blockbuster drugs often end up facing competitve threats before their patent expiration. Once cheaper generics come in, erosion in sales is inevitable.

Can you recall any blockbuster drug that has held its market share "after patent expiration and arrival of generics"?

To Summarize, AMRN's CocaCola comparison will end in 9 years out of which the next 2-3 years will involve heavy expenditure to grow revenues and to maintain competitive edge in a changing landscape.

I know you are a super-smart investor and you invested heavily around all-time lows (so you won't care about the price). The longs in this board with higher cost-basis will need lots of vascepa (due to share price fluctuation) if AMRN goes it alone. For this reason, I hope AMRN's management accepts a high offer.