Replies to post #227213 on Biotech Values

[Bickema]

CLVS: I offered it as a deal candidate on Oct 16, 2019 based on very low valuation - BMY/CELG deal wasn’t closed at that time now it has - I think the most natural fit would be BMY. Whether BMY would do this deal or not now or ever is a different matter.

A BMY CLVS deal would be both commercial and science, they'd get 2 shots here 1) drive rubraca sales and expand indications and 2) research and develop lucitinab and FAP-2286.

Not a bad hedge if you are BMY

[caravon]

CLVS situation is very simple:
- Prior to the last CLVS CC, CLVS was priced for a bankruptcy. AZN, once again, overplayed CLVS management in the Profound prostate Ph3 clinical trial.
-- Prior to ESMO 2019, AZN reported that the trial has met its milestones being superior to evaluating the efficacy and safety of LYNPARZA versus enzalutamide or abiraterone in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) who have progressed on prior treatment with a new hormonal anticancer treatment and have a qualifying tumor mutation in one of 15 genes involved in the homologous recombination repair (HRR) pathway, among them BRCA 1/2, ATM and CDK12.
-- CLVS has panicked and heavily diluted its stock issuing convertible notes
-- Then came ESMO the results, Olaparib was superior to enzalutamide or abiraterone in BRCA1/2 but ATM did not show benefits. ORR for olaparib and Rucaparib were close. It became obvious that Olaparib did not show the superiority over Rucaparib but it was expected that Rucaparib also would be superior to enzalutamide or abiraterone in BRCA 1/2 pts. Therefore, no knockdown punch took place for Rucaparib.
-- Finally, olaparib was tested in 2nd-line and rucaparib was tested in 3rd-line prostate pts. So it was not a head-on comparison. There is no a single trial indicating Rucaparib is inferior to other PARPs with a good safety profile.

- From marketing point of view, Rucaparib is well behind olaparib as monotherapy clinical trials in ovarian pts. But the combo trial data of PARP drugs with other drugs are not there yet. This is where the future. In my view, olaparib and keytruda combo preliminary results are so-so. BMY and Roche are running combo trials of their leading drugs with rucaparib in TNBC, Gastric, Prostate, etc., The preliminary results are expected in the next 3-12 months.

- Add to this Lucitanib in combo with Rucaparib and Nivolumab in many solid tumor including NSCLC, ovarian, breast, etc.,

3 weeks ago, CLVS was priced at $280M and with 53 clinical trials in progress paid also by Roche, BMY, and others.

As of today, BMY and Roche know more about Rucaparib than CLVS itself.