Biotech Values

[jq1234]

CLVS: I offered it as a deal candidate on Oct 16, 2019 based on very low valuation - BMY/CELG deal wasn’t closed at that time now it has - I think the most natural fit would be BMY. Whether BMY would do this deal or not now or ever is a different matter.

https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/1184516172911390722?s=21

I group rationale from my various tweets into 3 major points:


1. When MRK dealt with Eisai for lenvatinib, Dew commented it was a commercial deal similar to MRK-AZN previous deal on olaparib and selumetinib rather than science deal in counter to BMY-NKTR deal. I disagreed at the time. I thought it was as much science deal as commercial deal because it reflected MRK’s different approach to pembrolizumab combination with chemo or validated target therapies instead of BMY’s higher risk IO/IO combination. To me it has been very clear, up to this point, MRK combination strategies have been proven superior.

https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/971522847834365953?s=21

Note: Roche utilized similar strategy in combination with chemo and target therapies - recent outstanding result from atezolizumab in combination with old drug Avastin in 1L HCC proved this strategy again.


2. Looking at CLVS right now has to look beyond current rucaparib sale in ovarian cancer alone. PARPi combination with checkpoint inhibitors is beyond ovarian cancer alone, currently including gastric, NSCLC, CRPC, etc.

https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/1200472124298842114?s=21

Additionally CLVS have lucitanib which is quite similar to lenvatinib. CLVS updated rationale for lucitanib and checkpoint inhibitors combination recently.

https://s22.q4cdn.com/778348918/files/doc_presentations/2019/11/Lucitanib-preclinical-deck-11122019-FINAL.pdf

Consider how big MRK have been betting on pembrolizumab in combination with lenvatinib, it seems BMY are trying to catch up.

https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/1192865153949339649?s=21


3. MRK vs BMY in IO combinations: the lesson should be you can’t let the other blow open in one major indication like NSCLC. From now on, it is very likely going to be hand to hand combat - as long as one offers similar combinations with similar data in every indication, the other one can’t blow you away like pembrolizumab + chemo did in 1L NSCLC. You can always bet on the side for something entirely different but unproven - MRK did with INCY epocadostat somewhat lukewarmly - I liked everything about INCY for a long time except epacadostat which I had expressed skepticism through the years.

MRK pembrolizumab + axitinib in RCC vs BMY nivolumab + cabozantinib; pembrolizumab + olaparib vs nivolumab + rucaparib; pembrolizumab + lenvatinib vs nivolumab + lucitanib or cabozantinib etc. To me this is going to be the main battles from now on until someone can offer something entirely different approach which is not entirely clear what it will be at this point.