venue, Yoyi- the numbers are based on recent market movements.
If sp was at $17 before AdCom doc release, $21 the day before AdCom and $24 post AdCom, then I would say 2/3 of the labeling price is already baked in in $24.
The upcoming events IMO:
EVAPORATE - won't affect sp much (+$1 or so) because it won't affect sales, assuming that doctors are comfortable prescribing within label without knowing MoA.
Labeling - +$2 to $5 depending on whether primary is included or not.
EU - most value is likely baked in already (so +$1-$2). FDA, TGA and EMA are aligned most of the times. Approval is just as matter of the time.
Litigation - I don't know, but it seems analysts' topline forecasts are not taking it into consideration. So I assume neither is the market.
So the enterprise value as sp is $28-$33, then add the acquisition premium. Pick a % yourself. But the recent proxy is BMY's 54% premium for CELG, but CELG has a portfolio of 5 drugs and $13.5B revenue. So my $35-$40 estimate is realistic. Of course I am happy to take more!
FYI - I have been 100% believing in EPA since 2010, and 200% believing in AMRN BO since 2010 too.
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