Replies to post #207508 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Shinook99]

LBL - I don’t know how to put into words exactly what I want to ask you, but I know you are literally the perfect person to ask being an actuary - and I’m not asking for investment advice.

I am with you in the holding my investment - I think the adcom was expected and if you read the minutes/notes/ answers to the adcom meetings in 2013 they clearly say we need to see R-It results to make a ruling on V. In that perspective I do not think there is any negativity to us being given an adcom. I grant the optics of it being announced at this point looks bad and is -currently- unexplainable.

So my question - being an actuary - how do you quantify the risk of holding at this point??? What %?

I look at the 2013 adcom results...the R-It results and I say this thing should be a no brainer. We did what they asked, got the exact results we needed and now we are coming back to answer their 1 big question from 2013 - the CV risk reduction. But, from a numbers standpoint where do you put the risk?

[rosemountbomber]

Quote:

"Too afraid to sell now and buy back later."

A couple of thoughts of that. Yep sure some of us would hate to take the chance to sell and then time the repurchase as who knows the thing could zoom up (BO out for instance) and we could be out of the stock when that happens.

But also, a lot of us are now sitting on long term cap gains. By selling now and repurchasing we now have to wait at least one year to get long term cap gains and if there is BO before a year is up then all the gains would be short term. So from the tax perspective probably not a great idea to sell and try to rebuy.