Replies to post #208 on SPX Elliott Waves (SP500)

[seriallong]

Hey Gratitude, based on your wave count, blue wave 1 was 182 points, blue wave 3 was 153 points, so based on the EW rule that wave 3 can't be the smallest, wave 5 could only be 153 points (153+2914 = 3067) or smaller. However, you are thinking wave 5 could end at 3200 to 3350. What am i missing here?

[NASARAVI]

G

How does the public and mart makers and global noise know that there is such thing as EWaves?

How cute, that the blue 4 ended up at 2914.11

EW rules dictate that 4 cannot overlap 1. That means next week we cannot come below 2910.61 -

So do you agree, that if we come below 1, we are either going down more to 2850-2800 level or even a retest of 2728.81

My gut feel says probability is 80/20. 80 going up and 20 coming down.

Please correct me, if I am wrong. Waiting for your response.

Thanks for your update - did not expect so deep correction on blue 4.

[Koutix]

Hi Gratitude. Nice view and EW count for SPX. Do you not worry about the huge dip for your wave iv blue and a very close overlapp with wave (i) blue at 2910 pts ? Thanks for your last update...

[gratitude]

Current Elliott Waves - Alternate Count: The correction last week was bigger than expected, namely almost 4% drop vs an expected 2-3% drop. This brings into discussion another possible count, with an extended wave 3 - while nodoby knows when an extended wave can happen, I believe that there are hints along the way, and I feel that the deeper drop might be such a hint, so we have to keep our options open so we can find ourself on the right side of the trade at all times.

The alternate count does not change anything for the next 2 months (other than assigning different numbers to the waves), so the trend is still up.

The first chart shows the alternate count on long term - the numbers placed in the future mark the time when i see the waves happening but they do not show the value of SPX, just the time. On this alternate count, blue wave 1 just finished, and the drop last week was blue wave 2, down to 38% of blue wave 1 (so strong chance blue wave 2 is done and is up from here; besides I can see an A-B-C with enough subwaves in C to finish the correction).

So, my best guess for this alternate count is that blue wave 3 started on Friday, and I expect blue wave 3 to finish in 4 months (beginning of December?).

The second chart shows spx focused on the last 4 months and I will use this going forward to count the waves.

As I said, for the next 2 months, both counts (main and alternate) imply an uptrend, and by the time they diverge we will figure out which one is the correct one.

Do not use Elliott waves for short term trading - they work properly for longer term trading (i.e. 2-3 months is the best)