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crashing today SPY
Current Elliott Waves - The spx drop in January of about 123 points I feel that it was not big enough to be blue wave 4, so I reverted to the old count, and i will consider the January drop as red wave 4, one degree lower than the blue one. In February, spx started red wave 5 up, and so far it did black subwaves 1 and 2. I expected black subwave 2 to go a little bit lower today, to 3320, but 3328 is good enough.
Current Elliott Waves - spx is taking a long time to do the correction, so I revisited the count to align it with the latest developments. It seems that spx completed green wave 3 in January at 3338. From there, it started green wave 4 down, which I expect to be a flat (3-3-5). So far, spx did legs A, B and started leg C down.
As I said last week, my daily indicators pointed to down, while the hourly ones kept pointing up. That's rare, and it resolved by changing the expected ABC zig-zag to a ABC flat.
The flat will be invalidated if spx makes a new high before it does the leg C down.
Current Elliott Waves - From 2855.94, spx completed red wave 3 last week at 3338. From there, it started red wave 4 down, which I expect to be an ABC down. So far, spx is working on leg A down, and so far it did subwaves 1,2 and 3 (in progress or complete - Monday will tell the story). Leg A I expect to be finished by the end of the week.
It is interesting that my daily indicators (proprietary, not on chart) point to down, while the hourly ones keep pointing up. That's rare, and usually, when I get contradicting indicators means that the trend is down but the move is choppy (unlike the August one) with bursts of up moves in order for the hourly indicators to reset, which could frustrate traders because would take their stops out.
Current Elliott Waves - From 2855.94, it started red wave 3, and so far it finished black waves i, ii, iii, iv and v. This count might be invalidated if spx goes above 3338.
At this point, it finished red wave 3 and it should correct at least 100-150 points as red wave 4, probably in the shape of an ABC down. I won't be surprised to see spx going a little bit down and a little bit up to test support, and then it should head down if my count is correct.
Current Elliott Waves - From 2855.94, it started red wave 3, and so far it finished black waves i, ii, iii and iv, and now it is doing black wave v. In my opinion, spx finished already blue subwaves 1, 2, 3 and 4 and it is doing now blue subwave 5. Out of blue subwave 5, it finished orange subwaves 1, 2, 3 and 4 so far, in my opinion.
Last week, spx did orange subwave 5, and it was a week long because it was an extended one (who knew?). So far, it is equal to orange subwave 3, so it can head down anytime. And of course, if it wants, it can go even higher, without invalidating Elliott waves theory.
However, the important part is that when orange subwave 5 is done, it will also complete the red wave 3, and then it should correct at least 100-150 points as red wave 4, probably in the shape of an ABC down.
Current Elliott Waves - From 2855.94, it started red wave 3, and so far it finished black waves i, ii, iii and iv, and now it is doing black wave v. In my opinion, spx finished already blue subwaves 1, 2, 3 and 4 and it is doing now blue subwave 5. Out of blue subwave 5, it finished orange subwaves 1, 2, 3 and 4 so far, in my opinion.
So, probably by now you are confused with so many waves and subwaves, and you are wondering what it means and what's next. Well, look at the chart below - if my count is right, all spx has to do is one more small run up to finish orange subwave 5 (unless some ugly weekend news take it down directly), which will also complete the red wave 3, and then it should correct at least 100 points. I expect spx to finish orange subwave 5 in a day or so. From there, I expect a sizeable drop (at least 100 points on spx) as red wave 4, probably in the shape of an ABC down.
Monthly Elliott waves Chart showing my forecast for the next years - Updated to account for the latest evolution of spx, which suggests that the spx is rushing toward the top faster than before, which brings the top closer. I see a top in spring-summer of 2021 to finish the larger degree wave 1 which started in 2009, followed by a wave 2 down in the end of 2021-2022, and then a wave 3 up until at least 2042.
I expect wave 2 to go down to ma(200) on monthly, which probably will be around 1900-2000 by then.
You won't find this prediction anywhere on the net other than here. Enjoy!
Current Elliott Waves - From 2855.94, it started red wave 3, and so far it finished black waves i, ii, iii and iv, and now it is doing black wave v. In my opinion, spx finished already blue subwaves 1, 2, 3 and 4 and it is doing now subwave 5. When blue subwave 5 is done (one week or so), it will finish red wave 3, so I expect a sizeable drop (at least 100 points on spx), probably in the shape of an ABC down.
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