So we generally agree? I don't know the future and the gyrations in between but i am pretty darn sure we are in the 9th inning of this mega-bull run.
The cumulative affect of trade war is that China has INCREASED its state ownership of businesses over last 12 months.
Got to hand it to the environmental genius that just told the world what a great environmentalist he is. I now suspect he believes his own twist on everything. Imagine pulling out of the Japanese accord, reducing environmental rules, disbanding the EPA as many have already resigned, pushing for coal, reducing car emissions restrictions, wanting to add oil rigs in our oceans, and bashing science as if it was a fake religion. YET NOT A SINGLE PRO_TRUMP NEWS ARTICLE POINTS THIS OUT. Thank you FOX and the like for creating an alternate reality. but hey, i overreact.
The one president that makes it possible to declare the economic cycle is near an end. his actions have sped up the process. he made bias hate corruption selfishness a goal for all Americans. =========================================================================
I need to see my target hit before July 24th. if it does reach that mark i will feel a whole lot comfortable calling the top. Can we stall before that mark? you bet. if we do i just don't know how deep the initial drop is or if we get one more surge to hit that top. i guess it's similar to Gratitude post.
Ok, so it looks more and more like this is option 1. Tomorrow will decide how deep this correction will be, but for now it seems to be controlled, which points to red wave 4. If this is red wave 4, it might go down over the next 2 days another 10-30 points on spx, and then there will be 2 weeks of upside (spx to 3030-3070) to do red wave 5. Then we will get a more sizeable correction.
The action today and yesterday points to red wave 4 (see post #110). That means that the bottom is in (or close to it), and early next week it will start 2 weeks of upside (spx to 3030-3070) to do red wave 5. Then we will get a more sizeable correction.
Current Elliott Waves - What an ugly chart! Despite all odds, as per my posts today and yesterday, I still believe that this drop is red wave 4. A little bit too dip and too violent for my taste, but still no major damage done to the chart.
Next week, i expect only a small drop if any, and then red wave 5 uptrend will start. Red wave 5 is supposed to last about 2 weeks, and add another maybe 50-70 points to SPX, before it will correct maybe 80 points or so (future blue wave 4). This count will be invalidated only if SPX drops below 2964.
If spx drops below 2964, than this drop is blue wave 4, a larger degree than red wave 4, and it can go down to 2920. So, keep an eye on 2964. And if you wonder if there is a single trade that can provide high odds of making money regardless of the wave (blue or red), the answer is yes. For example i got SPY Aug 2 calls at 298 for $2.7 - if it goes up, i make money right away; if it is blue wave 4 and it goes down to 272 first, i expect it to recover by Aug 2 to well above the current price so the calls should recover the loss. Plus, if it goes down to 292, that's an opportunity right there for more calls.
Do not use Elliott waves for short term trading - they work properly for longer term trading (i.e. 2-3 months is the best)
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