Replies to post #232283 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

Not for me it isn’t. I’m doing quite decently, thank you. That is about knowing when to buy, not absolute value at any time. He advised people to buy at the height and they’d be out immense sums of money.

Speak for yourself.

[maverick_1]

I dont know if we have right to throw stones yet

As I have demonstrated I only post what I know, EXPERIENCED, or back up with lots of documentation.
AND I gave up a VERY LONG TIME AGO helping out "friends with their investmentS" even though
NONE of those "friends" EVER lost any money UNLIKE what is SO APPALLING on this NWBO site::

I have in my archives the stock picking history of ALL those who post here:.
1)There are some here who post only on NWBO 24/7/365 for easily the last FIVE years.
2) There are those that post BEYOND NWBO

Suffice it to say ALL of the above TWO categories have ABYSMAL HIROSHIMA results

Just ONE example: Pyrrh advised BasinStBlues to buy ACHN in the $Teens:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=achn&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=13

AND being an altruist I did this:

maverick_1 Member Level Sunday, 03/08/15 02:46:40 PM
Re: None
Post # 650 of 790
Strategic Assessment of why BMY'(or other Big Pharma) need to participate in a crowded, price competitive Hep C mkt is IMHO the key to it being a winner as ACHN is late to party and no collaboration.

HEP C Area WAS ripe.
ACHN has appreciated 5X from 52 wk lows
GILD and Abbie dominate and pricing pressures will continue
Does BMY (or other Big Pharma) want or need to further address HEP C and what are the catalysts that make strategic investment sense to BMY etc.

So altho ACHN's recent data is impressive but limited and I AM A NOVICE in ACHN that is why I have avoided ACHN in last two months despite institutional owners (not a significant holding of any instl IMHO). Looks controversial.

My preference: Better odds with investment success when either or both are at play:

EARLY in Industry Acceptance and/or Institutional acceptance

versus the current:

Industry sector has mushroomed and finds itself subject to pricing pressures induced by insurers and dealing with two entrenched key players.

ACHN may be a good trade for nimble ones, but better investment IF the above is laid out.

This post prompted by involvement of a few notable NWBO brethren.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111528127

HERE are ALL the replies:

Basin Street Blues Monday, 03/09/15 04:57:13 AM
Re: maverick_1 post# 650
Post # 651 of 790
Hi Maverick,

Thanks for your thoughts , I guess your skepticism was mirrored by the Barclay analyst last week that based his note on ' late to the party ' as well.

As it stands right now looking at BBG the ANR function shows :

ACHN US Equity Analyst Recommendations
Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc As of 03/06/15
Consensus Rating 4.08
Buys 66.7% 8
Holds 25.0% 3
Sells 8.3% 1
12M Tgt Px 11/13 18.82
Last Price 10.99
Return Potential 71.2%
LTM Return 220.4%
Show In-House Data

Wells Fargo Securities Brian C Abrahams outperform 03/06/15 44.80% 5
JMP Securities Liisa A Bayko market outperform 24.00 03/06/15 3
Robert W. Baird & Co Brian P Skorney neutral 16.00 03/05/15 62.39% 4 1
Cowen and Company Dr Philip Nadeau outperform 03/05/15 220.41% 1 4
Barclays Dr Geoffrey Meacham underweight 8.00 03/05/1

Also there was the Deutsche reiterate of $25 last week as well .

Looking at the consensus rating of 4.08 , that's out of 5
and as far as BBG are concerned that compares with :

AbVie : 4.2
Pfizer : 4.1
J&J : 3.9
Merck : 3.9
BMY : 3.8

All said , I think there`s enough for me to remain long , I like the way their management operate also , in strict contract with some others .. no names mentioned ! ha




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mapman1010 Monday, 03/09/15 09:06:20 AM
Re: maverick_1 post# 650
Post #
653
of 790
Thanks Mav,
Like i told BSB i am happy with my entry point here. i am a risk taker as you have to be in biotech and i am way overweight in NWBO after buying stock and exercising options the last couple of months. i will keep a close eye on ACHN and hopefully will be nimble enough if something negative happens..
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maverick_1 Member Level Wednesday, 04/01/15 12:28:03 PM
Re: maverick_1 post# 650
Post #
664
of 790
Falling Earnings Estimates Signal Weakness Ahead for Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN)
March 30, 2015
by Zacks Equity Research Published on March 30, 2015
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/169240/falling-earnings-estimates-signal-weakness-ahead-for-achillion-pharmaceuticals-achn

Quote:
Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

One such stock that you may want to consider dropping is Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACHN - Snapshot Report), which has witnessed a significant price decline in the past four weeks, and it has seen negative earnings estimate revisions for the current quarter and the current year. A Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) further confirms weakness in ACHN.

A key reason for this move has been the negative trend in earnings estimate revisions. For the full year, we have seen 4 estimates moving down in the past 30 days, compared with no upward revision. This trend has caused the consensus estimate to trend lower, going from a loss of 85 cents a share a month ago to its current level of a loss of 97 cents.

Also, for the current quarter, Achillion Pharmaceuticals has seen 2 downward estimate revisions versus no revision in the opposite direction, dragging the consensus estimate down to a loss of 22 cents a share from a loss of 19 cents over the past 30 days.

The stock also has seen some pretty dismal trading lately, as the share price has dropped 18.7% in the past month.

So it may not be a good decision to keep this stock in your portfolio anymore, at least if you don’t have a long time horizon to wait.

If you are still interested in the Biomedicine sector, you may instead a better-ranked stock Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. (ACOR - Analyst Report) with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
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maverick_1 Member Level Monday, 04/13/15 08:09:09 AM
Re: maverick_1 post# 650
Post #
667
of 790
ARWR: Arrowhead cleared to proceed to Phase 2b for hep B candidate
Quote:
The FDA gives the green light to Arrowhead Research (NASDAQ:ARWR) to initiate a Phase 2b study of ARC-520 for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B infection. The study, called Heparc-2004, will involved 12 patients, eight will receive 1 mg/kg of ARC-520 and four will receive placebo.The trial is designed to assess multiple doses of ARC-520 (2 mg/kg and 4 mg/kg) but FDA has a partial clinical hold in place until it reviews data from the 1 mg/kg arm.The company expects to begin patient enrollment in ~1 month.Previously: Arrowhead drops after FDA partial clinical hold on hep B candidate (Jan. 12)


Coupled with my 1st post on ACHN, this is why I've preferred ARWR over the last two months for a whole host of portfolio reasons just like what is evolving on NWBO.
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maverick_1 Member Level Sunday, 05/31/15 03:00:25 PM
Re: maverick_1 post# 650
Post #
705
of 790
Adding more salt to the JNJ/ACHN wound

My initial assessment strategically was closest to what transpired recently with the terms of the JNJ/ACHN collaboration than what many had opined since the start of 2015.

Clearly the fly in the ointment was JNJ's Sept 2014 $1.7 bln acquisition of privately held Alios Therapeutics.

Adding more salt to the JNJ/ACHN wound is the below excerpt's from today's Seeking Alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/3203006-gilead-merck-and-achillion-j-and-j-square-off-in-an-hcv-nuclear-showdown
Quote:
By acquiring Alios last year and negotiating a deal with Achillion this week, JNJ has put itself in a position to be a contender with the nucleotide AL-335 and NS5A inhibitor ACH 3102, although they are far behind and have the highest risks. Given the IP risks with ACH 3422 and the relatively poor performance vs. Sovaldi in mono-treatment, I don't expect JNJ to advance Achillion's nucleotide. If JNJ was interested in ACH 3422, they would have purchased ACHN and the price would have been much higher.
Quote:
Achillion’s nuke ACH 3422 suffers from poor bio-availability, has a tenuous IP position, and a slow pace of development
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AND ACHN's descending demise:https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/09/11/1117273/0/en/Achillion-Announces-Termination-of-Worldwide-Collaboration-for-Hepatitis-C-With-Janssen.html

That's why:

DIFFERENT STROKES FOR DIFFERENT FOLKS