Replies to post #231363 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[rogers5729]

The 20% at five years is from the Information Arm, so I don’t think that necessarily equates to what’s being seen in the trial. We hope it does, but we can’t be sure.

[sentiment_stocks]

If they know the number alive as of ASCO (unless the CRO doesn't even inform them on that), then I agree, they may be telegraphing a 32% improvement from November 2018, as you suggest, in the KM life expectancy at 5 years.

From today's share holder note...

For those of you who didn’t get a chance to view the webcast, we would encourage you to look at the replay on our website and follow along using the PowerPoint presentation. Following it this way should better provide more perspective on the progress we have been making.

From Lykiri...

My conclusion: the survival data appear consistent with the blinded interim data of the trial. All the numbers they gave us in the past were based on the ITT group = 331 patients.
So,

data NOV 2018::
50 patients are expected to live for 58.4 months or more.

data JUNE 2019
66 patients (20% of the blinded ITT group= 331 patients) are expected to live for 60 months or more!

That is a 32% improvement!

[flipper44]

Maybe. Interesting. Thanks.

[flipper44]

Lykiri, I thought about this a bit more. I think you are more than likely right about their current blended expectation. I can also see why they would not share it at this time, considering they're going to be interacting with all four regulators on the SAP and the five year KM expectation is nearly, but not quite written into stone yet....maybe another two months for maturity on that. Thanks for the analysis. If correct, it's probably the biggest insight coming from their ASCO presentation.

[meirluc]

data JUNE 2019
66 patients (20% of the blinded ITT group= 331 patients) are expected to live for 60 months or more!

That would be fantastic but how did you arrive at that kind of an improvement occurring between SNO 2018 and ASCO 2019?