Replies to post #195419 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Sure, a JAMA Article Showing Profound Clinical Results

...will, indeed, affect the AVXL price. But, pray tell, where will such results come from?

Do you suppose a new report showing reversal or prophylaxis of Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s in lab rats will turn the AVXL price? Only thing that will count will be reports of efficacy in real humans, and lots of them, in a big, fully-sized double blind clinical trial.

Wait. There are two of those going on right now. Wonderful. When they are completed, later this year a JAMA paper might appear. That’s the one the popular news media will report on, telling how Anavex 2-73 improved the health of Spaniards or Australians with CNS debilities.

How many retail investors read or understand JAMA papers? The popular news media have to interpret and present the arcane details to the vast audiences of retail stock investors.

Key thing is this. Reports of an Australian Alzheimer’s patient being able to once again play the piano, or another to paint pictures again, or of a few dozen humans with Alzheimer’s now being able to sleep well after taking Anavex 2-73 didn’t (won’t) get reported in any science journal. Even if they were, they would be disregarded. Anecdotal, uncontrolled. Not statistically significant. Those are existing human outcomes from Anavex 2-73 therapies. But they haven’t influenced the AVXL share price one penny.

So, please tell. Where are the data to come from for some future JAMA article that will elevate the AVXL share price? If they (the data) are not from a full-scale, full-blinded, approved clinical trial, who’s going to believe them?

Again, I would be utterly delighted to be totally wrong on all of this; to wake up next week, open the (digital) paper and read about some “big new Alzheimer’s treatment” in the New York Times, reporting on a lead JAMA article. But I’m not buying or selling a share of AVXL in anticipation of such “news.”

Like most other retail stock investors following Anavex, I’m waiting for positive clinical trial results. With those, the discussions of Anavex Life Sciences Corp will be altogether different. The several columns of zeros behind my projected Anavex sales and revenue numbers will begin to have validity.

Until then? More of the same.