Replies to post #854 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[dewophile]

these are fairly low risk trials - and this isn’t news. So minimizes the pop

The forehead and crows feet data are low risk, the rest aren't. The ph 2 CD data they have is pretty small numbers and noisy. In fact the GL data was lower risk and that doubled the stock when the ph 3 read out. If RVNC had truly derisked the therapeutic side with a differentiated product we wouldn't be here IMO.
So I do in fact think the 2020 data readouts loom large

[jmkobers]

<<this is almost certainly about WS understanding that he is so unwilling to give up anything that a massive dilution is very likely and nobody wants to be in before that. It is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy caused by Brownes inability to understand that his time value of money is not the same as a banks. >>

It's a possible explanation but far from definitive. Since December 4th the pps went from 25 to 11 and change. Do you think this can all be attributed to the sudden realization by WS that a massive dilution is on its way and can't be averted? They have always been a money eating machine. This comes as no great shock to anyone but yet the pps spiked regularly in the past. Also, they are a good year and a half out (maybe more) from any possible launch. How could WS be so sure of dilution, if RVNC wanted a US partner there is ample time to make that happen.

If I had to guess, I think the decline is more about the last raise being the final nail in the "the company is no longer for sale" coffin. I honestly believe there was a lot of money in the stock anticipating a buyout and I can' say I blame them. Sure looked like a prime candidate. For that reason and that reason alone, I think once Dan put the word out as a part of the $17 offering that the for sale sign was coming down (either directly or indirectly), they got the F out

And so now the price is so low people are afraid to buy - and THAT is the self fulfilling prophecy

[jmkobers]

<<If RVNC needs to raise 150M at 5 dollars that hurts no doubt. >>

Are you F'ing kidding me? So your attitude must be, Dew is a moron.

When RVNC was @ 25 (sure, there has bee dilution but not enough to reduce the point) Dew said that RVNC was a good "long term investment with minimal risk". Where were you then? Was Dew flat out wrong or are you the guy that comes in after the fact?

I always shutter when I see iwfal post. He isn't here to help only to debate/hear himself talk (and he's the kind of guy that LOVES that).