Agree with all that. In your mind would war with help or hurt him? Bush's Iraq war ended up hurting him. Am guessing you feel, as i do, on balance it would hurt him. If so is he smart, or cagey enough if that is a better word for some, enough to get to that position.
On those Trump tweets re Obama and Iran, just thinking, while making porridge, they were more likely lies for political purpose than his belief at the time. And as you suggest, i think, some projection by Trump.
Doubt even Trump then honestly thought Obama would consider war for re-election. Trump though, i agree, could.
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