Replies to post #223844 on Biotech Values

[biotech_researcher]

RVNC- Dew, thanks for the in-depth analysis. As we move closer to launch, what should we model in for cash burn for the sales and marketing piece? I’ve seen the Botox recent ad that is strictly targeted to millennials..

[jbog]

AGN’s Botox franchise (including aesthetic and therapeutic indications) had a net present value of $24B (#msg-127654469)

I'd have no better way to put a number on what the Botox franchise is worth, but I would think it wouldn't be in the $24B ballpark.

AGN is valued at $46B (EV $68B) while Botox represents around 23%/24% of sales. This is not to say that Revance is not deeply undervalued, but I'd have trouble comparing Revance to Allergan which has around 60 products on the market.

One thing we should never forget is that the only historical blemish Botox has ever experienced (mostly young patients) is when the drug migrated from the injection site. It stopped the lungs, heart etc from functioning and eventually caused death.