Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: How much is Botox worth?

Botox is doing about $3B in annualized sales, is growing at a double-digit rate, and has a strong demographic tailwind (#msg-119792298). Moreover, Botox has a gross margin of >90%, to the best of my knowledge.

In cosmetic indications, which account for about 50% of worldwide sales, Botox is generally self-pay and hence is not subject to pricing pressure from governments and other third-party payers. Botox cosmetic patients tend to be price-inelastic, as evidenced by the fact that sales do not fall off drastically during economic downturns. (People will forego other discretionary expenditures before they give up on looking good.)

Based on the above, I conservatively value the worldwide Botox franchise at $24B, which is about 8x annualized sales.