House GOP leaders fear support eroding for Trump’s shutdown fight A growing number of Republican lawmakers could vote for Democratic measures to reopen the federal government.
By JOHN BRESNAHAN and SARAH FERRIS 01/07/2019 06:22 PM EST Updated 01/07/2019 09:49 PM EST Several dozen House Republicans might cross the aisle this week to vote for Democratic bills to reopen shuttered parts of the federal government, spurring the White House into a dramatic effort to stem potential GOP defections.
White House officials and Republican congressional leaders worry that GOP support for the shutdown is eroding, weakening President Donald Trump’s hand as he seeks billions of dollars for a border wall that Democrats have vowed to oppose, according to GOP lawmakers and aides.
Hoping to sway skeptics in his party and the broader public, Trump will make an Oval Office address Tuesday night to discuss what he called the “Humanitarian and National Security Crisis on our Southern Border," he said on Twitter. Then he will visit the border region on Thursday.
Vice President Mike Pence and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen will address House Republicans on Tuesday evening. The House is scheduled to vote Wednesday on a Democratic bill designed to fund the IRS and several other agencies, the first of four bills Democrats hope will peel off Trump's GOP support in the House.
Without more money, the IRS could have a problem processing tax refunds. Russ Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, reversed course Monday and said refunds will be paid out, another move by the White House to mitigate the effects of the shutdown.
The Democratic funding measure is one of several narrow measures that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and party leaders will push forward this week. The bills are designed to put pressure on GOP lawmakers to break with Trump and support re-opening the nine departments hit by the 17-day shutdown. More than 800,000 federal workers are currently not getting paid — roughly 350,000 remain on the job without pay — with their first missed paycheck coming later this week.
Despite the White House PR blitz, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and other senior Republicans believe that “a significant bloc” of House Republicans could vote with Democrats on the funding measures, according to GOP lawmakers and aides.
A senior House GOP aide said McCarthy and his top lieutenants believe 15 to 25 Republicans will vote with Democrats this week, possibly even more.
"We have a lot of members who are gonna want to vote for these things," said the GOP aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Publicly, we will never tell them to do it. Privately, we will tell them to do what they have to do."
However, GOP leaders say they can keep that number below 55, a key threshold. That many Republican defections, coupled with all House Democrats, would reach 290 "yes" votes, a veto-proof majority. House Democrats can't overcome Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) refusal to bring up their bills, but such a vote would signal the House can override a Trump veto, a major blow to the president and his allies.
“The biggest thing we can do to back the president up is to keep it below veto proof,” the GOP aide added. “That's a win for us.” U.S. Treasury Department
“I think the more that you have people not getting paid, the more the stories coming out about the hardships this shutdown is creating, not just for federal workers but those who rely on federal agencies to get their work done, people are shaking their heads,” said Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, one of seven House Republicans who voted with Democrats last week to reopen the government. “I think it’s a pretty unsustainable position, and I felt that early on.”
In forcing these votes, Pelosi and Democratic leaders have copied a GOP tactic from the 2013 shutdown, when a battle over Obamacare led to a 16-day government shutdown.
At the time, House GOP leaders made Democrats take dozens of votes to fund national parks, low-income nutrition assistance, Head Start and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, among others.
The first House vote, which will take place Wednesday, will dare GOP lawmakers to vote against funding for a slew of financial agencies including the IRS. A “no” vote — Democrats argued before Monday's comments from OMB — is a vote to delay tax refunds to U.S. taxpayers.
The same funding package includes a 1.9 percent pay raise for the nation’s 2 million civilian federal workers, a large chunk of whom have been working without pay since the shutdown began.
Democrats will also force Republicans to vote separately on bills that include funding for food stamps and some federal mortgage programs.
Back in 2013, roughly two dozen Democrats sided with the GOP on nearly every spending bill. A bill to fund veterans’ benefits won support from 35 Democrats.
White House officials and GOP leaders privately say a similar number of Republicans will vote for Democratic bills this week, a blow to Trump but not a fatal one.
"Yes, there is some concern. Look at what happened in 2013. There were a ton of defections," a White House official said. "We're trying to make sure House Republicans know the facts. I think it's less a concern about votes, and more than that, we want to make sure they know the facts."
Last week, only seven House Republicans voted for Pelosi’s plan to reopen the government without extra money for Trump’s border barrier. Most of the "yes" votes were moderate Republicans from swing districts, as well as Walden, a GOP leadership ally who said he decided to support the funding bills to stop the pain hitting national parks in his district.
Pence called some Republicans to persuade them to vote against the Democratic bill, GOP leadership aides said. And Republican lawmakers who supported the proposal heard complaints from party leaders.
“We’ve been in touch with those members and others,” Pence told reporters Monday when asked about certain Republicans expressing concern with the shutdown. “I’ll be on Capitol Hill tomorrow before the president's national address briefing House members with the [Homeland Security] secretary. We're going to be on Capitol Hill meeting with the Senate on Wednesday.”
“Republican leadership is leaning on folks. They were pretty pissed at the seven Republicans who voted for the package last week,” said an aide to a Republican who voted in favor of the Democratic proposal.
House Republicans are also searching for a strategy to rebut the Democrats’ plan. GOP leaders are eyeing procedural tactics to force Democrats to take tough votes as well. One idea is to force Democrats to take a vote against increasing funding for Election Assistance Grants, according to a House GOP aide familiar with the plans.
House Republican Conference Vice Chair Mark Walker said the GOP will “weather the storm” as Democrats pile on pressure this week to get Republicans to break with Trump over the shutdown.
“You’re always going to have defections when it comes to certain tough issues,” Walker said of the Democrats’ funding tactics, but added the “overwhelming majority” of House Republicans will stick together.
"People are going to start hurting really badly,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said, noting such things as looming mortgage payments for furloughed employees.
But he dismissed the Democratic bills as as a mere messaging stunt.
“But this is nothing, this is fake, which is unfortunate," he said of the funding bills. "It’s all for naught.”
President Trump’s desperate, nonsensical claim that Mexico is paying for the wall More than 200 times Trump promised Mexico would pay for the wall. Now he falsely says he's keeping his promise with the revised trade agreement with Mexico.
“I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively, I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.”
— Donald Trump, in his presidential announcement speech, June 16, 2015
“What we save on the USMCA — the new trade deal we have with Mexico and Canada — what we save on that, just with Mexico, will pay for the wall many times over just in a period of a year, two years and three years. … So I view that as, absolutely, Mexico is paying for the wall.”
— Trump, remarks during a news conference, Jan. 4, 2019
Just about every president has made a campaign promise that, once elected, he discovers he cannot fulfill.
George H.W. Bush once proclaimed, “Read my lips: No new taxes.” Barack Obama pledged that he would reduce the annual cost of health-care premiums by $2,500.
Taxes went up under Bush, and so did premiums under Obama. Voters never forgot it.
Bush made his tax pledge in his nomination acceptance speech. Obama at least 19 times promised to reduce premiums, according to a video circulated by Republicans.
Now President Trump faces a similar conundrum: He promised that Mexico would pay for his plan to build a wall along the southern border. But he did not make this promise just once or even two dozen times. From his announcement speech to the election, he declared 212 times that Mexico would pay for the wall, according to the comprehensive record of Trump’s speeches, interviews and tweets maintained by factba.se. That works out to almost every two days during the campaign.
Mexico refuses to pay for the wall, and Trump has engineered a government shutdown to try to force Congress to appropriate the necessary funds. Yet he insists that Mexico is paying for the wall because of a reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that his administration negotiated — though it is not yet ratified by Congress.
This is a nonsense claim. When the president first raised it in mid-December, we asked both the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and the Council of Economic Advisers for the economic analysis that justified his statement. The USTR would not respond to our queries, and the CEA said it was a matter for the White House press office. But the White House press office declined to respond.
We initially decided that this claim could be easily handled in our database of Trump’s false and misleading claims (which now total 7,645).
But now the president has asserted it at least five times in three weeks, suggesting it is a statement on its way to becoming a Bottomless Pinocchio. So let’s fact-check it.
But first, let’s review how the president made his case during the campaign. The Facts
When Trump was running for president, he was unequivocal: Mexico was paying for the wall, and he would guarantee it. He claimed that there were many ways the Mexicans could be forced to pay for it and that they would be “very happy” to do it.
- "Mexico will pay for the wall, okay? One way the other, there’s five different ways they can pay.” — Jan. 20, 2016 - “Lightweights come up to me, and they say you can’t get Mexico to pay for the wall. I said a hundred percent, not 99, I said a hundred percent.” — March 4 - “Mexico’s going to pay for the wall. They just don’t know it yet. But trust me, they’re going to pay for it.” — Sept. 30 - “Mexico will pay for the wall. They’ll be very happy to do it. Very happy to do it.” — Oct. 30
The basic idea: He would threaten to cut off the flow of billions of dollars that Mexican immigrants sent home unless Mexico immediately made a “one-time payment” of $5 billion to $10 billion. He also suggested other intimidation tactics, including increased trade tariffs, the cancellation of visas and higher fees for border-crossing cards.
But the idea immediately came under attack for being probably illegal and likely unworkable. Trump never really pressed the idea, though he would often tell audiences that he had released a plan to force Mexico to pay for the wall.
Trump also promised to have Mexico pay for the wall in the “Contract with the American Voter,” released with fanfare on Oct. 22. 2016: The wall would be built “with the understanding that the country of Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall,” said the document, which Trump signed.
After Trump took the oath of office, however, the promise to make Mexico pay was quietly dropped. In his first conversation with then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, on Jan. 27, 2017 — The Post obtained the transcript ... https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/australia-mexico-transcripts/?utm_term=.467b917d787f ... — Trump admitted that he had a political problem of his own making. (Peña Nieto had canceled a trip to Washington after Trump had tweeted Jan. 26 that Mexico would pay for the wall.) He urged Peña Nieto not to make an issue of it.
“The fact is we are both in a little bit of a political bind because I have to have Mexico pay for the wall — I have to,” Trump said. “I have been talking about it for a two-year period.” He pleaded with the Mexican president not to say that Mexico would not pay for it. “You cannot say that to the press. The press is going to go with that, and I cannot live with that,” Trump said.
Peña Nieto replied that he was happy to avoid the subject. “Let us for now stop talking about the wall,” he said. “… Let us leave this topic — let us put it aside and let us find a creative way of looking into this issue.”
much more
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The Pinocchio Test
The president has already earned a Bottomless Pinocchio for claiming that the United States loses money on trade deficits. Now, he’s claiming that the “savings” from his trade deal will pay for the border wall.
Given that the trade deficit depends on factors beyond a president’s control, this is yet another risky promise to make. The trade deficit with Mexico climbed in 2018. It may climb again in 2019. But even if the trade deficit declined, that would not translate into government revenue that could be claimed for the wall. Congress would still need to appropriate the necessary funds.
It’s hard for any politician to admit they broke a campaign promise. But no amount of spinning and fuzzy math will obscure the fact that Trump made a promise that he cannot deliver. If he keeps making this claim, he’ll end up with a Bottomless Pinocchio — compounded.
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