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Tuesday, January 08, 2019 10:40:26 AM
President Trump’s desperate, nonsensical claim that Mexico is paying for the wall
More than 200 times Trump promised Mexico would pay for the wall. Now he falsely says he's keeping his promise with the revised trade agreement with Mexico.
1:34
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/08/president-trumps-desperate-nonsensical-claim-that-mexico-is-paying-wall/?utm_term=.0b6236e49baf
By Glenn Kessler
January 8 at 3:00 AM
[most of embedded links omitted]
“I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively, I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.”
— Donald Trump, in his presidential announcement speech, June 16, 2015
“What we save on the USMCA — the new trade deal we have with Mexico and Canada — what we save on that, just with Mexico, will pay for the wall many times over just in a period of a year, two years and three years. … So I view that as, absolutely, Mexico is paying for the wall.”
— Trump, remarks during a news conference, Jan. 4, 2019
Just about every president has made a campaign promise that, once elected, he discovers he cannot fulfill.
George H.W. Bush once proclaimed, “Read my lips: No new taxes.” Barack Obama pledged that he would reduce the annual cost of health-care premiums by $2,500.
Taxes went up under Bush, and so did premiums under Obama. Voters never forgot it.
Bush made his tax pledge in his nomination acceptance speech. Obama at least 19 times promised to reduce premiums, according to a video circulated by Republicans.
Now President Trump faces a similar conundrum: He promised that Mexico would pay for his plan to build a wall along the southern border. But he did not make this promise just once or even two dozen times.
From his announcement speech to the election, he declared 212 times that Mexico would pay for the wall, according to the comprehensive record of Trump’s speeches, interviews and tweets maintained by factba.se. That works out to almost every two days during the campaign.
Mexico refuses to pay for the wall, and Trump has engineered a government shutdown to try to force Congress to appropriate the necessary funds. Yet he insists that Mexico is paying for the wall because of a reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that his administration negotiated — though it is not yet ratified by Congress.
This is a nonsense claim. When the president first raised it in mid-December, we asked both the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and the Council of Economic Advisers for the economic analysis that justified his statement. The USTR would not respond to our queries, and the CEA said it was a matter for the White House press office. But the White House press office declined to respond.
We initially decided that this claim could be easily handled in our database of Trump’s false and misleading claims (which now total 7,645).
But now the president has asserted it at least five times in three weeks, suggesting it is a statement on its way to becoming a Bottomless Pinocchio. So let’s fact-check it.
But first, let’s review how the president made his case during the campaign.
The Facts
When Trump was running for president, he was unequivocal:
Mexico was paying for the wall, and he would guarantee it. He claimed that there were many ways the Mexicans could be forced to pay for it and that they would be “very happy” to do it.
- "Mexico will pay for the wall, okay? One way the other, there’s five different ways they can pay.” — Jan. 20, 2016
- “Lightweights come up to me, and they say you can’t get Mexico to pay for the wall. I said a hundred percent, not 99, I said a hundred percent.” — March 4
- “Mexico’s going to pay for the wall. They just don’t know it yet. But trust me, they’re going to pay for it.” — Sept. 30
- “Mexico will pay for the wall. They’ll be very happy to do it. Very happy to do it.” — Oct. 30
At one point, Trump was forced to release a plan for making Mexico pay for it. He first gave it to The Washington Post (you can read the memo here.) ... https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/memo-explains-how-donald-trump-plans-to-pay-for-border-wall/2007/
The basic idea: He would threaten to cut off the flow of billions of dollars that Mexican immigrants sent home unless Mexico immediately made a “one-time payment” of $5 billion to $10 billion. He also suggested other intimidation tactics, including increased trade tariffs, the cancellation of visas and higher fees for border-crossing cards.
But the idea immediately came under attack for being probably illegal and likely unworkable. Trump never really pressed the idea, though he would often tell audiences that he had released a plan to force Mexico to pay for the wall.
Trump also promised to have Mexico pay for the wall in the “Contract with the American Voter,” released with fanfare on Oct. 22. 2016: The wall would be built “with the understanding that the country of Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall,” said the document, which Trump signed.
After Trump took the oath of office, however, the promise to make Mexico pay was quietly dropped. In his first conversation with then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, on Jan. 27, 2017 —
The Post obtained the transcript ... https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/australia-mexico-transcripts/?utm_term=.467b917d787f ... — Trump admitted that he had a political problem of his own making. (Peña Nieto had canceled a trip to Washington after Trump had tweeted Jan. 26 that Mexico would pay for the wall.) He urged Peña Nieto not to make an issue of it.
“The fact is we are both in a little bit of a political bind because I have to have Mexico pay for the wall — I have to,” Trump said. “I have been talking about it for a two-year period.” He pleaded with the Mexican president not to say that Mexico would not pay for it. “You cannot say that to the press. The press is going to go with that, and I cannot live with that,” Trump said.
Peña Nieto replied that he was happy to avoid the subject. “Let us for now stop talking about the wall,” he said. “… Let us leave this topic — let us put it aside and let us find a creative way of looking into this issue.”
much more
[...]
The Pinocchio Test
The president has already earned a Bottomless Pinocchio for claiming that the United States loses money on trade deficits. Now, he’s claiming that the “savings” from his trade deal will pay for the border wall.
Given that the trade deficit depends on factors beyond a president’s control, this is yet another risky promise to make. The trade deficit with Mexico climbed in 2018. It may climb again in 2019. But even if the trade deficit declined, that would not translate into government revenue that could be claimed for the wall. Congress would still need to appropriate the necessary funds.
It’s hard for any politician to admit they broke a campaign promise. But no amount of spinning and fuzzy math will obscure the fact that Trump made a promise that he cannot deliver. If he keeps making this claim, he’ll end up with a Bottomless Pinocchio — compounded.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/08/president-trumps-desperate-nonsensical-claim-that-mexico-is-paying-wall/?utm_term=.94f897521f27
More than 200 times Trump promised Mexico would pay for the wall. Now he falsely says he's keeping his promise with the revised trade agreement with Mexico.
1:34
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/08/president-trumps-desperate-nonsensical-claim-that-mexico-is-paying-wall/?utm_term=.0b6236e49baf
By Glenn Kessler
January 8 at 3:00 AM
[most of embedded links omitted]
“I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively, I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.”
— Donald Trump, in his presidential announcement speech, June 16, 2015
“What we save on the USMCA — the new trade deal we have with Mexico and Canada — what we save on that, just with Mexico, will pay for the wall many times over just in a period of a year, two years and three years. … So I view that as, absolutely, Mexico is paying for the wall.”
— Trump, remarks during a news conference, Jan. 4, 2019
Just about every president has made a campaign promise that, once elected, he discovers he cannot fulfill.
George H.W. Bush once proclaimed, “Read my lips: No new taxes.” Barack Obama pledged that he would reduce the annual cost of health-care premiums by $2,500.
Taxes went up under Bush, and so did premiums under Obama. Voters never forgot it.
Bush made his tax pledge in his nomination acceptance speech. Obama at least 19 times promised to reduce premiums, according to a video circulated by Republicans.
Now President Trump faces a similar conundrum: He promised that Mexico would pay for his plan to build a wall along the southern border. But he did not make this promise just once or even two dozen times.
From his announcement speech to the election, he declared 212 times that Mexico would pay for the wall, according to the comprehensive record of Trump’s speeches, interviews and tweets maintained by factba.se. That works out to almost every two days during the campaign.
Mexico refuses to pay for the wall, and Trump has engineered a government shutdown to try to force Congress to appropriate the necessary funds. Yet he insists that Mexico is paying for the wall because of a reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that his administration negotiated — though it is not yet ratified by Congress.
This is a nonsense claim. When the president first raised it in mid-December, we asked both the U.S. Trade Representative’s office and the Council of Economic Advisers for the economic analysis that justified his statement. The USTR would not respond to our queries, and the CEA said it was a matter for the White House press office. But the White House press office declined to respond.
We initially decided that this claim could be easily handled in our database of Trump’s false and misleading claims (which now total 7,645).
But now the president has asserted it at least five times in three weeks, suggesting it is a statement on its way to becoming a Bottomless Pinocchio. So let’s fact-check it.
But first, let’s review how the president made his case during the campaign.
The Facts
When Trump was running for president, he was unequivocal:
Mexico was paying for the wall, and he would guarantee it. He claimed that there were many ways the Mexicans could be forced to pay for it and that they would be “very happy” to do it.
- "Mexico will pay for the wall, okay? One way the other, there’s five different ways they can pay.” — Jan. 20, 2016
- “Lightweights come up to me, and they say you can’t get Mexico to pay for the wall. I said a hundred percent, not 99, I said a hundred percent.” — March 4
- “Mexico’s going to pay for the wall. They just don’t know it yet. But trust me, they’re going to pay for it.” — Sept. 30
- “Mexico will pay for the wall. They’ll be very happy to do it. Very happy to do it.” — Oct. 30
At one point, Trump was forced to release a plan for making Mexico pay for it. He first gave it to The Washington Post (you can read the memo here.) ... https://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/memo-explains-how-donald-trump-plans-to-pay-for-border-wall/2007/
The basic idea: He would threaten to cut off the flow of billions of dollars that Mexican immigrants sent home unless Mexico immediately made a “one-time payment” of $5 billion to $10 billion. He also suggested other intimidation tactics, including increased trade tariffs, the cancellation of visas and higher fees for border-crossing cards.
But the idea immediately came under attack for being probably illegal and likely unworkable. Trump never really pressed the idea, though he would often tell audiences that he had released a plan to force Mexico to pay for the wall.
Trump also promised to have Mexico pay for the wall in the “Contract with the American Voter,” released with fanfare on Oct. 22. 2016: The wall would be built “with the understanding that the country of Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall,” said the document, which Trump signed.
After Trump took the oath of office, however, the promise to make Mexico pay was quietly dropped. In his first conversation with then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, on Jan. 27, 2017 —
The Post obtained the transcript ... https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/australia-mexico-transcripts/?utm_term=.467b917d787f ... — Trump admitted that he had a political problem of his own making. (Peña Nieto had canceled a trip to Washington after Trump had tweeted Jan. 26 that Mexico would pay for the wall.) He urged Peña Nieto not to make an issue of it.
“The fact is we are both in a little bit of a political bind because I have to have Mexico pay for the wall — I have to,” Trump said. “I have been talking about it for a two-year period.” He pleaded with the Mexican president not to say that Mexico would not pay for it. “You cannot say that to the press. The press is going to go with that, and I cannot live with that,” Trump said.
Peña Nieto replied that he was happy to avoid the subject. “Let us for now stop talking about the wall,” he said. “… Let us leave this topic — let us put it aside and let us find a creative way of looking into this issue.”
much more
[...]
The Pinocchio Test
The president has already earned a Bottomless Pinocchio for claiming that the United States loses money on trade deficits. Now, he’s claiming that the “savings” from his trade deal will pay for the border wall.
Given that the trade deficit depends on factors beyond a president’s control, this is yet another risky promise to make. The trade deficit with Mexico climbed in 2018. It may climb again in 2019. But even if the trade deficit declined, that would not translate into government revenue that could be claimed for the wall. Congress would still need to appropriate the necessary funds.
It’s hard for any politician to admit they broke a campaign promise. But no amount of spinning and fuzzy math will obscure the fact that Trump made a promise that he cannot deliver. If he keeps making this claim, he’ll end up with a Bottomless Pinocchio — compounded.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/08/president-trumps-desperate-nonsensical-claim-that-mexico-is-paying-wall/?utm_term=.94f897521f27
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