Replies to post #177623 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[LakeshoreLeo1953]

Since you feel you have read specific figures
for 11/2015-3/2016, would you mind a link to
THAT data not the last 12 calendar month period?

[XenaLives]

So let's use our crayons again

 
  3/31/2016	2,790,941	387,570		 7.201128  
  3/15/2016	3,275,303	786,528		 4.164255  
  2/29/2016	3,351,869	517,311		 6.479408  
  2/12/2016	3,296,512     1,167,248 	 2.824174  
  1/29/2016	2,970,306	828,118 	 3.586815  
  1/15/2016	3,167,934     2,532,059 	 1.251130  
   12/31/2015	2,735,608     2,441,362 	 1.120525   
   12/15/2015	3,154,419     2,304,913 	 1.368563   
   11/30/2015	2,644,088     8,471,719 	1.000000   
   11/13/2015	2,303,738     7,321,149 	1.000000   
   10/30/2015	2,085,698     1,219,686 	1.710029   
   
  
 

3.3 million is the highest number

 
  12/14/2018	5,542,513	186,519 	29.715541  
  11/30/2018	5,542,897	150,113 	36.924830  
  11/15/2018	5,744,717	160,815 	35.722520  
  10/31/2018	5,783,150	426,886 	13.547294  
  10/15/2018	5,553,619	220,507 	25.185681  
  9/28/2018	5,765,630	363,517 	15.860689  
  9/14/2018	5,689,444	180,832 	31.462595  
  8/31/2018	5,740,454	183,845   	31.224423  
  8/15/2018	5,814,264	287,331	        20.235422  
  7/31/2018	5,619,190	323,299	        17.380784  
  7/13/2018	5,512,714     1,629,466          3.383141  
  6/29/2018	4,987,450     1,045,374 	 4.770972  
  6/29/2018	4,987,450     1,045,374 	 4.770972  
  6/15/2018	6,160,104     1,074,516 	 5.732910  
  5/31/2018	6,081,254	277,243	        21.934743  
  5/15/2018	5,979,269	251,146 	23.807940  
  4/30/2018	5,876,481	325,520 	18.052596  
  4/13/2018	5,287,123	272,186 	19.424669  
  3/29/2018	5,019,020	281,431 	17.833927  
  3/15/2018	4,609,105	317,430 	14.520067  
  2/28/2018	4,388,774	211,082 	20.791797  
  2/15/2018	4,555,968	380,550 	11.972061  
  1/31/2018	4,404,075	356,538 	12.352330  
  1/12/2018	4,409,183	228,264 	19.316156 
 

4.4 is the lowest number, 6.1 is the highest, 5.6 is an approximate average for the last half of the year.



I don't believe that dilution has been more than 25% and I think that's being generous. If anyone has the exact figures handy please post them.

So shorts are currently 1.69 times the older time frame and dilution is an assumed 1.25 so shorts have increased faster than dilution.

Note that shorting increased substantially roughly 4/15 to 6/15 in the last half of the year. Volume was unusually high 6/15 to 7/15 with minimal covering, "churn" seems to be responsible for this. Before and after that time period daily volume is in a similar range, dropping even further at end of year. This indicates to me that there wasn't much tax loss selling.

The dramatic increase in short interest this year would support a theory that shorting interests expected additional dilution and it just didn't happen....

**** note, I prepared this post and then forgot to post it. It was written before Steady_T's comment on volume.