Replies to post #175787 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[bennyboy1]

Falconer - One thing I am certain of - your contributions to this Board have been both enlightening and refreshing to hear. Thank you for all your wisdom, and by all means, please continue as we move ahead with great hope in 2019 for little ANAVEX!

[OFP]

Only Trials Results Matter

The above is another way to say what I said last night in the "unique MOA" thread. That was:

One should not conflate efficacy, what is needed for approval, and what is MOA. They are all separate and it is possible for a drug to be efficacious and be approved when the MOA is completely unknown (there are many examples).

So if they can show efficacy it doesn't really matter what the MOA is, they can sort that out later....or never. OTOH, a clear MOA provides a theoretical basis for expectation of, or at least hope for, success in trials. If we look at the reasons you have given for your "very positive outlook" we see that most of it centers around the generic S1R agonist action. To state the obvious, right now investing in AVXL is a game of predicting probability of success and then assessing risk of failure vs. reward. IMO, it is a mistake to incorporate generic S1R function in making that assessment. The remaining element in that regard is to ask "what are the chances 2-73 does agonism better?". In the absence of any evidence it does it better and some suggesting the opposite, I view the probability it does agonism better at something close to zero. I'm sure others view that probability differently...that's part of why there's a market for AVXL shares but I'd really like to hear a cogent view as to why the probability is not 0 or thereabouts.