Replies to post #174631 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[OFP]

Thank you for the link. Am I correct to assume that we won't get any readouts from Rett/Parkinson's/Alzheimer's until this time next year or early 2020?

IMO...
They predict the PDD study will end in 12/2019 so if they are accurate (I don't) then would expect a readout in spring of 2020 (I'd call that best case).

For Rett they need to do the pilot study then assess results, get an FDA go ahead, and then run a larger study. Again, I'd say 2020 is best case.

For AD they are in the weeds. A 450 patient trial should have 50+ sites in order to have a hope of recruiting in <2 years (even then most take longer). With 12 sites I don't think they even have a credible plan for completion. Zero chance of read out in 2020 and probably something close to that chance over the following decade unless they replace it with the real plan. Just extrapolating AVXL's PDD recruitment would give 18 sites, 17 months, and 120 patients so conversion would 17 months x 18/12 (sites) x 450/120 (patients) = 95.6 months (8 years).